#宏观关键周 As Central Bank Super Week Meets Tech Giants’ Earnings, Who Will Lead the Market?

Last week, doubts about the AI outlook intensified, prompting investors to shift funds from tech stocks into safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell for a second consecutive week, while the Dow Jones posted its third straight weekly gain. Brent crude rose 6% for the week after Trump again warned of military action against Iran, but this did not significantly boost the dollar. Gold closed the week below $4,000.
This Week’s Focus
① The Fed may hold rates steady this week; attention turns to U.S. inflation and GDP data
② The European and Japanese central banks may hold steady, while New Zealand and Canada are expected to hike
③ Earnings from U.S. tech and energy giants are due in a busy week

This week’s economic calendar is busy, with the rate decisions of major central banks—led by the Fed—undoubtedly taking center stage.
Among economic data, the U.S. PCE price index and third-quarter GDP are also worth watching.
Meanwhile, earnings from U.S. tech and energy giants are due in a busy week, and market sentiment will continue to be tested.
Fed May Hold Steady at October Meeting; Focus on Inflation and GDP DataThe Fed will announce its rate decision at 02:00 Beijing time on October 29. Interest rate markets have priced in about a 10% chance of a hike this week, though the probability of a December hike remains around 80%.
As with several recent meetings, Fed Chair Warsh may not offer forward guidance, leaving investors to look for more clues in economic data, including the U.S. September PCE price index and third-quarter GDP, due on the evening of the rate decision. Higher-than-expected inflation and economic growth could raise the likelihood of a rate hike before year-end and support the dollar.
Major Central Banks Set to Deliver Decisions; New Zealand and Canada Expected to HikeIn addition to the Fed, the central banks of New Zealand, Canada, Europe and Japan will announce rate decisions in succession this week.
Given the current economic and political environment in Europe, particularly France, the European Central Bank is highly likely to hold rates steady on Thursday. The possibility of its next rate hike being postponed until early next year is increasing, which is unlikely to support the euro.
Interest rate market pricing indicates that a Bank of Japan hold on Friday is almost a foregone conclusion. The focus of this meeting is the central bank’s stance on the pace of future rate hikes; the yen has risen for two consecutive weeks.
Markets broadly expect the central banks of New Zealand and Canada to raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday this week, and the New Zealand and Canadian dollars have strengthened for two consecutive weeks. If the central banks do not deliver more hawkish signals this time, the gains may not be sustained.
Tech and Energy Giants’ EarningsA Fed pause could ease pressure on tech stocks, which have faced concentrated selling over the past two weeks. Market views on the outlook for the AI trade have diverged. The Nasdaq has retreated more than 7% from its record high since early October, while the Dow Jones has risen about 3% over the same period.
About one-third of S&P 500 constituents will report quarterly results this week, including Microsoft and Google (after Wednesday’s close) and Amazon (after Thursday’s close), three of the Magnificent Seven. Capital expenditure and cash flow at these “hyperscalers” may continue to dominate market sentiment and fund flows. By way of comparison, after META’s earnings report showed negative cash flow in the third quarter last week, its stock plunged 9.4% for the week.

In addition, energy giants such as ExxonMobil and Chevron will report earnings on Friday. Among the S&P 500’s 11 sectors, energy has posted the biggest gain this year, and third-quarter earnings growth is expected to reach 121% year over year (FactSet). With the current geopolitical situation still driving oil prices higher, energy stocks are one option for hedging against the risk of the AI trade cooling.

Gold fell 4% last week, breaking below the key $4,000 level, and closed lower in four of the past five weeks.
On the weekly and daily charts, the RSI has not yet approached oversold territory, and the path of least resistance remains down. Key support below lies in the $3,900–$3,950 area, around the previous low.
On the 4-hour chart, the RSI has entered oversold territory, but downside momentum remains strong. Patience is therefore needed for signs of a turnaround, such as short-term divergence.
However, until a clear sign of a bottom emerges on the higher time frames, any rebound on shorter time frames may be very limited in strength and scope. To the upside, $4,035 is an initial target, while the former support near $4,075 has turned into a key resistance level. If gold fails to reclaim this level, prices may remain under pressure.
Gold’s one-week implied volatility has risen to around 22%, signaling potentially significant price swings during the upcoming central bank super week.#Gate广场万圣节