Bitcoin, gold, or U.S. stocks—which is Powell’s “favorite child”? Tomorrow’s FOMC may reveal the answer

Tomorrow’s FOMC decision is just around the corner, and the market is back to guessing: Will the Fed give liquidity the green light, or keep making investors “tighten their belts”?
First, Bitcoin ($BTC). If the Fed sends a dovish signal, expectations of future rate cuts may rise, putting pressure on the dollar and real interest rates and reviving risk appetite—potentially giving Bitcoin room to climb. But don’t pop the champagne just yet: if rate cuts are already priced in, the news could instead become an excuse to take profits.
The same goes for U.S. stocks. Low interest rates usually support growth-stock valuations, especially tech stocks with plenty of potential future earnings. However, if the Fed turns dovish because the economy suddenly weakens, the market could switch in an instant from “celebrating rate cuts” to “worrying about a recession.”
Gold is more like the safety airbag in an investment portfolio. Lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, often supporting prices; but a stronger dollar or easing safe-haven demand could also cap gains.
So don’t focus only on whether rates are cut. The real key is how Powell describes the future policy path. After all, the market excels at turning good news into a reason to sell once it’s out.
In a nutshell: Interest rates shape expectations for the direction of travel; policy wording determines how fast the market actually moves. $UAI

‌#宏观关键周