Could Anthropic's valuation go through the roof if it lists as $ANT? Don't rush—the bigger the AI story, the tougher the market's questions may be.

When a star AI company is preparing to go public, what does the capital market do best? Of course: tell the story of the next ten years first, then go back and ask who’s paying this year’s bills.

If Anthropic moves forward with a Nasdaq listing, the market is likely to value it based on more than just current revenue. It will also consider Claude’s competitiveness, the potential to expand its enterprise customer base, the pace of AI industry growth, and how much market share the company could capture in the future.

Sounds reasonable, right? The problem is that the future has one drawback: it hasn’t happened yet.

Investors are willing to pay a premium for high-growth companies, but the higher the valuation, the more demanding the market’s expectations become. If everyone believes early on that AI demand will continue to boom, the share price may already reflect a lot of optimistic expectations. If revenue growth slows, costs exceed expectations, or a competitor suddenly launches a more compelling product, the valuation may have to sit another test.

What’s more, Anthropic isn’t competing on an empty field. It faces a group of well-funded rivals with strong technical capabilities. A large AI market doesn’t mean every company will emerge as the ultimate winner.

In my view, the key question after the listing is whether growth, profitability, and monetization can form a virtuous cycle: growth brings customers, monetization generates revenue, and cost control drives profits, ultimately giving the valuation support from real operating data.

So don’t just ask how much $ANT could rise after listing. Also ask how much of the future the market has already priced in.

The most dangerous investment isn’t necessarily buying a bad company, but buying an excellent company at a perfect price.

AI can change the world, but a stock price never automatically escapes valuation risk just because someone says it will change the world.

My core take #每周来晒 and #Anthropic files for a U.S. IPO
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