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U.S. retail traders really have nerves of steel! Chip stocks are getting hammered, but the more they fall, the more aggressively people buy
① Retail traders are really charging in this time
From October 12 to 16, U.S. leveraged ETFs saw net inflows of about $9.5 billion in one week, a record and roughly double the previous record.
The most popular one was $SOXL , a 3x leveraged ETF that bets on semiconductor stocks rising.
It attracted about $7 billion in just one week.
Keep in mind, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 11% that same week. People weren't chasing after seeing prices rise; they were specifically buying the dip.
② Now let’s see what institutions are doing
Goldman Sachs data shows that hedge funds cut their tech stock holdings more aggressively in the five trading days through October 15 than at any point since records began in 2016.
This makes for quite an interesting picture.
On one side, leveraged ETFs keep attracting money; on the other, hedge funds are busy reducing their tech stock positions.
Still, we can't directly say institutions sold their holdings to retail traders; flow data can't prove exactly who bought from whom.
③ Is buying the dip a bargain now?
SOXL has indeed fallen quite a bit recently, so it looks cheaper than it did at its highs.
But there’s a catch: SOXL tracks three times the semiconductor index's daily moves, not three times its long-term return.
If the market keeps swinging, SOXL may not recover even if the chip index eventually returns to where it started, due to daily compounding and volatility decay.
So I don't really agree with the claim that “after falling this much, it must be a great deal.”
A big drop only means the price is lower; it doesn't mean the risk has fully played out.
If the semiconductor sector finds a floor, institutional selling slows, and money keeps flowing in, these dip buyers may actually have made the right bet.
On the other hand, if tech stocks keep falling, the damage from 3x leverage can be much worse than with ordinary stocks.
At the end of the day, I don't think retail traders are necessarily wrong to buy the dip. But betting on an immediate market reversal with 3x leverage takes real guts.#Gate广场万圣节 #每周来晒