Could the dollar be this week’s market engine? Once the Fed speaks, global assets will have to watch its every move!

If this week’s macro market were a major reality show, the dollar might not be the contestant grabbing the most attention, but it would be the one setting the pace.
The Fed announces its decision on Wednesday, US GDP and PCE take over on Thursday, the European Central Bank steps in next, and the Bank of Japan closes the week on Friday. The dollar faces not a multiple-choice question, but a whole series of tests. If the Fed is hawkish and US inflation comes in above expectations, the market may raise its rate expectations, supporting the dollar; if inflation cools and the policy tone softens, the dollar could come under pressure.
The decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan matter just as much. The US Dollar Index looks beyond the US, comparing policy differences among other major economies. If the US holds steady while Europe turns more dovish, the dollar could strengthen; if Japan sends a tougher signal, the yen could steal the spotlight instead.
My take: As a candidate for the earliest directional move, the dollar deserves a spot near the top, as it may react quickly to the Fed decision and affect gold, stocks, and crypto assets. But the first wave of volatility doesn’t mean it will be the week’s winner; the real direction depends on the gap between the data and market expectations.
This week, don’t just ask whether the dollar will rise. First ask what the market is afraid of—and what it is expecting.
$GT #宏观关键周