#BTC争夺8万美元关口 #每周来晒 Where will BTC bottom? $73k and $75k aren’t contradictory—the real signal lies here

Bitcoin has fallen, and the market is looking for a bottom.
Some believe a normal bull-market pullback may be nearing its end; some see $75k as a potential launch point, while others warn that $73k is the level to watch closely.
So which is the bottom: $73k or $75k? Will BTC rebound directly from here, or fall for another round?
It’s still too early to confirm that a bottom is in. Rather than argue over a specific number, it’s more important to watch three things: whether selling pressure is exhausted, whether leverage is flushed out, and whether genuine buyers return after key price levels are tested.

01 The decline may be nearing its end, but the market hasn’t confirmed it yet
On October 25, market analyst Murphy offered one explanation for the recent decline: some coins transferred to trading platforms in advance may have put pressure on the market during the weekend’s thinner liquidity. Notably, Murphy observed that entity-adjusted realized losses for Bitcoin did not rise as prices fell; instead, they declined. If this continues, it suggests there hasn’t yet been obvious panic selling on-chain. But this only indicates that one type of selling-pressure signal is not prominent; it does not prove that the market has bottomed.
Leverage is more concerning.
Since October 14, open interest in perpetual contracts has continued to build. Even as prices have pulled back repeatedly, positions have not declined significantly.
In other words, prices are falling, but both bulls and bears in the market are still placing bets.
What does this mean? If long leverage is excessive, further price declines could trigger liquidations of long positions; if short positions are too crowded, a rebound could trigger short covering. Positions are building on both sides, which means the market could still see another bout of amplified volatility.
So the most important thing right now isn’t to guess whether prices will rise or fall tomorrow, but to see whether the next bout of volatility truly flushes out leverage.
Trader Killa believes the larger pullbacks in this bull market may be around 10%–15%. BTC has fallen about 10% from its recent high, so under this framework, the correction may be nearing its end. This view is worth considering, but it shouldn’t be treated as a conclusion. Historical pullback percentages aren’t a fixed formula; a 10% decline doesn’t mean only 5% of the risk remains. A pullback nearing its end and a confirmed bottom are two different things.

02  How should we interpret $73k and $75k?
These two figures look close, but they come from different analytical frameworks.
Ali Charts noted that around $73k is close to the average cost basis of Bitcoin short-term holders. If the price falls to this area, the market will need to watch whether buyers can defend it and whether the price finds support again after reaching it.
Analyst NoName, meanwhile, identified $75k as a potential fair value gap fill in a cycle roadmap and sees it as a possible rebound starting point.
Therefore, the two levels are not strictly in conflict: $75k is a scenario based on a gap fill. $73k is a reference point based on short-term holders’ cost basis. But it’s important to stress that these are reference levels within analytical frameworks, not support levels confirmed by the market, and they don’t mean BTC is certain to fall to either one. If the price stabilizes around $75k, buying strengthens, and leverage risk declines, the market may not need to test $73k. If $75k fails and the market continues to weaken, $73k may become the next level to watch closely. If $73k is also decisively broken and rebounds consistently fail to reclaim it, the market should reassess whether the current pullback has exceeded expectations, rather than continually lowering the target and looking for reasons to justify the original view.
NoName also gave subsequent targets of $100k, $126k, $160k, and $190k. These levels can serve as references for future bullish scenarios, but only if BTC first completes its correction and re-establishes an uptrend. Cycle targets are not destinations that prices are bound to reach.

03 Ahr999 is approaching its bottom-fishing threshold. Is now a good time to buy the dip?
On October 25, Bitcoin’s Ahr999 indicator fell from 0.56 at the start of the month to 0.5, remaining in the dollar-cost averaging zone and gradually approaching the 0.45 bottom-fishing threshold.
The indicator is generally divided into three zones:
Below 0.45: bottom-fishing zone;
0.45–1.2: dollar-cost averaging zone;
Above 1.2: overvalued zone, where investors should wait.
Historically, the cumulative number of days Ahr999 has been below 0.45 is 731. This shows that the indicator entering the bottom-fishing zone is not so rare that it has happened only once or twice, but it also doesn’t mean prices will rebound immediately every time it enters that zone.
Ahr999 is better suited to helping long-term investors assess valuation and dollar-cost averaging pace than to timing short-term trades on its own. Even if the indicator falls below 0.45, the market could still decline further.

04 What should you do next?
Watch three signals
For ordinary investors, it’s better to make a clearly defined plan than to bet on whether the price will be $73k or $75k.
First, watch whether leverage is truly flushed out. 
If open interest falls significantly as prices decline, it means some positions are being closed; if prices continue to weaken while leverage keeps building, be prepared for another bout of amplified volatility.
Second, watch how the market reacts at key price levels. 
When BTC approaches $75k or $73k, don’t just watch whether it reaches the level; also watch whether it stabilizes, reclaims key levels, and sees stronger spot buying.
Third, size your position according to your investment horizon. 
Long-term dollar-cost averaging investors can invest in installments according to plan, rather than betting everything on the bottom; short-term traders should wait for confirmation from price action and fund flows, control leverage, and avoid being forced to liquidate during heightened volatility.

BTC’s pullback may have entered a phase worth watching closely, but the signals are not yet sufficient to confirm that the correction is over. $75k is not a guaranteed bottom, and $73k is not the last line of defense. What truly matters is whether sellers are exhausted, buyers step in, and the market completes its deleveraging when prices reach these areas.
Predicting prices is analysis; waiting for signals is trading. In a bull market, what often makes the real difference isn’t who guessed the lowest point, but who didn’t run out of ammunition before the bottom arrived.