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This year's mega IPO, Anthropic, is finally here. It is targeting a listing during the week of November 16.
The underwriting lineup has been fully revealed, including Wall Street heavyweights such as Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, UBS, and JPMorgan Chase.
But the figures disclosed in the prospectus so far are even more chilling than previously leaked expectations.
The company recorded a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half, and explicitly warned in the filing that it may not be able to achieve or sustain profitability and does not plan to pay dividends for the foreseeable future.
The biggest hole comes from future compute bills. Through 2033, Anthropic expects to pay Google up to $114.5 billion, with about $161.2 billion in expenses under its leasing arrangements with Broadcom.
In addition, the company may issue up to $42 billion in convertible promissory notes and flagged the risk of needing to refinance sooner than expected.
As for its customer mix, although 79% of revenue comes from outside its top five customers, this AI giant, registered as a public benefit corporation, still locks in control through a special share structure (Class A, Class N, and Class T).
On-chain pre-market trading has already provided an initial indication of pricing. After publicly filing its Nasdaq IPO application, Anthropic pre-market contracts briefly surged more than 4%, then pulled back to around $1,900, while its over-the-counter valuation remains firm above $1.9 trillion.
The concern now remains liquidity. At a macroeconomic juncture defined by a battle for existing capital, will U.S. stocks face an extremely strong siphoning effect to absorb a money-magnet with a valuation approaching $2 trillion?
Whether buying the stock will make money remains to be seen, but those who can't use Claude still won't be able to—for example, me, the editor typing this out by hand right now.