U.S. stocks face “three hurdles” this week! The Fed, GDP, and tech giants’ earnings reports are all on deck—who will jolt investors awake first?

This week’s U.S. stock market calendar looks just like an annual performance review arranged by the boss: first, listen to the Fed; then, submit the economic report card; and finally, review the tech giants’ earnings. Investors are either trading or on their way to trade.
The first hurdle is interest rates. If the Fed sends hawkish signals, Treasury yields could rise, forcing investors to recalculate what future profits are worth for high-valuation tech stocks. After all, dreams can be expensive, but discount rates don’t care about anyone’s feelings.
The second hurdle is GDP and PCE. If the economy is strong and inflation refuses to come down, the market may worry that rates will stay high; if growth cools and inflation eases, risk assets may get some breathing room.
The third hurdle is more intriguing: earnings from tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon will test whether AI investment is actually generating profits or simply fueling a contest over who can spend more extravagantly on capital expenditures.
My take: U.S. stocks are likely to be one of the markets most prone to consecutive bouts of volatility this week, but whether the indexes rise or fall will depend on whether earnings can live up to macro expectations. If rate pressures ease and results beat expectations, the bulls may get back in the game; otherwise, watch out for good news being fully priced in and valuations reverting to the mean.
If you’re trading U.S. stocks this week, don’t just focus on how compelling the story is—see whether profits can back it up. $NVDA

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