#Gate广场万圣节 BTC falls below $80,000 again; analysis of its outlook

As of October 26 at 09:30, Bitcoin was trading at around $80,038.61, down 0.84% in 24 hours. It hit an intraday low of $79,241 and has since recouped some losses.

Why it fell below $80,000
· Macroeconomic pressure: Rising tensions in the Middle East and oil prices have fueled concerns about inflation and interest rates staying elevated.
· Weaker fund flows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen consecutive outflows, cooling institutional buying.
· Leveraged liquidations: After the price broke below a key level, concentrated long positions were forcibly liquidated, amplifying the decline.
· Thin weekend liquidity: With less market-making capital, sell orders can push prices down more easily.

What to watch next
The short-term outlook remains weak and choppy. $80,000 has shifted from support to a resistance zone, capping the potential for a rebound until the price reclaims and holds above it. The first level to watch below is around $79,150. If it holds, the price may continue to move sideways; if it breaks, the next range to watch is $77,000–$78,500. These levels are close to recent lows and a dense cluster of on-chain cost bases.
The medium-term direction depends on three factors: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate signals, whether ETFs return to net inflows, and whether Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above $80,000. Until all three improve in tandem, the market is more likely to “bottom first, then recover” than to reverse quickly.

My view: The short-term outlook is weak, and a further drop to around $77,000 remains possible; only if the price holds and reclaims $80,000 could it turn toward a choppy recovery. There is not yet enough evidence to confirm a trend reversal, and it would be unwise to trade as if the price has “definitely bottomed.”#WCTCS9