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First, oil prices. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise with them, and the Fed has to push back its plans to cut rates. Investors see the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin and gold increase, so they naturally pull back. When gold loses steam, Bitcoin also loses a point of reference. The two assets are highly correlated, so when one struggles, the other does too.
Now, U.S. stocks. When U.S. stocks come under pressure, institutions’ first reaction is to reduce risk exposure, selling liquid assets for cash. Bitcoin’s market is relatively small and its volatility is high, so it is often treated as an ATM and sold first. That’s why bad news from U.S. stocks reaches the crypto market faster than many people expect.
So when will Bitcoin bottom out? Watch for two key signals. First, whether oil prices can stabilize and stop surging. Only when inflation expectations ease will investors dare to return. Second, U.S. stocks need to stabilize first. Once institutions stop panic-selling, Bitcoin will have a chance to catch its breath. The 80,000 level is the dividing line between bulls and bears: if it holds, there could be a rebound; if it doesn’t, 78,000 will have to weather another test. The same goes for gold at 4,000. As long as this psychological threshold holds, precious metals and crypto can continue to support each other.
As always, patience matters more than anything. Taking a position at key levels offers much better risk-reward.
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