#美股科技股集体大跌 This adjustment looks more like tech stocks shifting into a phase of “high valuations and rigorous financial scrutiny.” There is still room for a short-term rebound, but the broad-based rally may already be over.

Why view this as a short-term pullback for now
U.S. tech earnings remain strong, with third-quarter growth forecast at 43.3% year over year, making the sector a major contributor to U.S. stock market profits.
Major cloud providers and chip leaders are still increasing AI investment, and industry demand has not clearly weakened.
Oil prices, geopolitical risks, and interest rate expectations have amplified the sell-off, reflecting liquidity conditions and valuation repricing, not necessarily the disappearance of AI demand. But the rally is indeed cooling. The market has shifted from “the bigger the capital spending, the better” to questioning cash flow, financing costs, and investment returns. Meta beat revenue expectations but plunged due to heavy capital spending and negative free cash flow, showing that earnings reports have become a watershed.

Goldman Sachs estimates that six major AI infrastructure companies plan to invest about $1.73 trillion; at a required after-tax return of 15%, they would need cumulative revenue of about $1.42 trillion in 2028–2030. This scale means only a few companies can generate sufficient returns from AI.

What happens next
First to recover: companies with stable cash flow from cloud, advertising, and software, and able to prove that AI is generating incremental profits.
Remain under pressure: computing-power rental and application companies that rely heavily on the AI narrative, are expanding too fast and carrying heavy debt, or still have AI revenue at the demo stage.
Divergence in the chip segment: hardware leaders such as Nvidia that are directly securing orders remain on firmer footing than pure-play AI concept companies; optical modules, semiconductor equipment, and data center suppliers will also fluctuate with the pace of capital spending.

So, this decline has conditions for a rebound, but the market will continue to diverge afterward. The long-term tech stock theme remains intact; it has simply shifted from “rise on an AI story” to “invest in real cash flow.”#WCTCS9