#SpaceX第三季度财报

SPCX surged to a high in August, then slid all the way down. Now it’s moving sideways near 148 on declining volume, as if waiting for a verdict. The earnings figures have already been thoroughly dug through—the revenue estimate is around 12.9 billion, and EPS is roughly $0.14 to $0.19. The market even popped champagne in advance for its “first profitable quarter.” But last time, Q2 revenue beat expectations by 15%, yet the stock promptly fell 9% because capex surged to 18.4 billion and the market feared it was burning cash for growth.

This time, the script will probably be the same. Starlink user growth is indeed impressive, with 1.7 million net additions in a single quarter, but ARPU is stuck at $66, with more users but no increase in per-user revenue. What really makes investors wary of taking a large position are two other potential landmines beyond earnings: 1.3 billion shares are unlocked on October 22, followed by another 329 million shares hitting the market on the 24th; and Starship’s 15th flight is reportedly set to attempt a “chopstick catch” of the ship for the first time. If it works, it’s a milestone; if it fails, it’s an emotional nuclear bomb. Morgan Stanley says earnings are just the “appetizer.” I believe that halfway—the appetizer doesn’t matter, but before the main course is served steadily, the table could be flipped at any moment.

So here’s my take: this isn’t the place to bet on earnings. The options market is pricing in a post-earnings move of nearly 7.5%, with 162 to the upside and 139 to the downside, so the odds aren’t favorable. If you really want to act, it’s better to wait for one of two things to happen—either Starship Flight 15 delivers a clear reusability signal, or the lockup expiration creates a decent-sized dip. The price around 148 looks like institutions may be supporting it, but support and a rally are two different things. Low-volume sideways trading is the most grueling; don’t stand guard for someone else halfway up the mountain. $SPCX