#山寨币反弹势头消退 #WCTCS9 ETF outflows continue; what signal is the market waiting for?

Since this market rally began, spot ETFs have maintained solid net inflows. But as the market has turned, data show that for the week ending October 16, US-listed Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP ETFs saw combined net outflows of $575.91 million, bringing cumulative withdrawals over two weeks to about $1.81 billion.

The four categories saw net outflows of about $1.24 billion the previous week. Outflows slowed in the latest week, but have yet to turn positive.

In detail, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $228.58 million for the week, down about 66% from $681.1 million the previous week. Outflows remained negative for a second consecutive week, totaling about $910 million over the two weeks. Cumulative net inflows fell to $56.88 billion, and total net assets declined to $104.29 billion.

A CryptoQuant analyst noted that Bitcoin ETF flows over the past 30 trading days remain positive, at about 15.4k BTC. Weekly outflows have slowed to about 2,800 BTC, easing selling pressure, but institutional accumulation is also slowing.

Since Bitcoin returned above $80k in late September, ETF buying and selling have largely offset each other over the past three weeks, leaving cumulative net demand barely positive.

Ethereum was also the largest source of outflows for the week, with Ethereum ETFs seeing net outflows of $319.97 million, about 56% of the four categories' combined outflows. Outflows were $542.07 million the previous week, marking three consecutive negative weeks and a cumulative total of about $1 billion.

Changes in futures data are even more noteworthy. According to CFTC data, as of October 13, leveraged funds held net short positions of about 30,611 BTC, down 5,292 from 35,903 a week earlier, a decline of nearly 15%.

The data itself look more like risk reduction than a shift from short to long.

Total open interest in CME Bitcoin futures fell by about 3,567 BTC equivalent for the week, a decline of 3.2%. Leveraged funds are reducing directional exposure and allocating more capital to hedged spreads.

Asset managers maintained net long positions of about 18,440 BTC equivalent, with their bullish skew increasing by about 547, mainly because short positions fell faster than long positions.

Bitcoin outflows from ETFs have slowed but have yet to turn positive, while Ethereum and Solana are still seeing outflows. In futures, leveraged funds have cut their short positions and open interest has temporarily declined, indicating that amid volatility and liquidation pressure, investors are choosing to reduce directional risk first.

As we said yesterday, the crypto market is currently facing greater challenges from the macro environment. Although it rebounded during the day yesterday on news about Russian diesel exports, the market still looks weak, as if it is waiting for the next starting gun.

For Bitcoin itself, whether it can hold $80k is a key signal for gauging whether ETF demand and futures positioning will turn around.

The next CFTC report will be released this Friday, covering position changes over the past week. It will show whether hedge funds continued to cut shorts or rebuilt them during the latest inflation-driven downturn, and can also serve as a brief barometer of market sentiment.

The rally that began in August has remained at a solid level so far. Although some popular altcoins have performed poorly, that has not prevented major projects from doing well.

Next week's interest rate meeting may determine the market's direction over the next two weeks. But given how resilient Bitcoin has been recently despite such poor macro conditions, there may still be reason for optimism.$BTC