#TSLA #SpaceX第三季度财报 Roadster Takes Flight: Can Tesla Spark Another Rally? Robotaxi and Optimus Commercialization in the Earnings Spotlight

Tesla, the U.S. giant in AI, humanoid robotics, autonomous driving technology and electric vehicle manufacturing, has been on an upward trajectory since late July. Some Wall Street strategists believe its rally is not over. In their view, the luxury Roadster showcases Tesla’s engineering prowess, while Optimus and Cybercab embody the company’s core vision for breaking beyond the auto industry’s valuation framework. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, said over the weekend that humanoid robots and autonomous taxis will account for the vast majority of Tesla’s future value. Tesla is using its most cutting-edge flagship products to keep its brand in the spotlight, while betting its long-term growth on autonomous driving services and labor automation technology. Tesla’s stock, however, has yet to shake off pressure: it closed at $354.72 on October 16, down 7.31% for the week, essentially flat so far in October, and down about 21% year to date. On Monday Beijing time, it rose about 1% in overnight trading, but as of 7:25 p.m. Beijing time on October 19, its premarket quote had retreated to $353.45, down 0.36%—suggesting to some extent that the attention generated by the major Roadster reveal has yet to translate into sustained buying. Wall Street bulls are primarily betting on the strong growth trajectory offered by FSD full self-driving software, autonomous taxis and the commercialization of humanoid robots.
Dan Ives, a well-known Wall Street analyst at Wedbush, believes Tesla has real-world data, purpose-built hardware, manufacturing scale and a direct sales channel that can turn vehicles from one-off delivery products into platforms generating ongoing software revenue. Cybercab, he says, is focused on expanding AI-powered autonomous mobility service revenue based on full self-driving technology, while Optimus is entering industrial automation and the global labor market worth trillions of dollars.
Among the 27 Wall Street star analysts tracked by TipRanks, 14 rate Tesla “Buy” or “Outperform,” 11 “Hold” and 2 “Sell.” This means that analysts’ broad optimism about the prospects for AI, full self-driving and humanoid robotics does not mean institutions agree that the current valuation is cheap. Wedbush maintains its “Outperform” rating on Tesla, with a price target as high as $500, implying more than 40% upside over the next 12 months.

The Roadster grabs attention; Robotaxi and robots determine the long-term outlook
Wall Street rating agency Morningstar believes that although its latest estimate, based on official Roadster data, puts annual deliveries below 2,000 units, the car could still draw consumers to Tesla’s other models. CEO Elon Musk has placed the Optimus humanoid robot and Cybercab autonomous taxi at the heart of the company’s future value. Meanwhile, a Morningstar analyst said the Roadster, which can “briefly achieve high-altitude flight,” could attract buyers to Tesla’s broader lineup. Musk made the remarks after the long-awaited sports car finally made its debut. In a remotely controlled demonstration, it briefly lifted off and flipped using cold-gas thrusters, winning praise for Tesla’s engineering prowess while raising questions about the vehicle’s practicality. “Optimus and Cybercab will make up the vast majority of Tesla’s value,” Musk said on X. He said superintelligence, robotics, solar power and transporting matter into space are businesses that could reach an extraordinarily large economic scale, and that progress in the first two would drive development in the other areas. “But the Roadster is just too cool, so we’re going to make it anyway,” he added.
Meanwhile, Morningstar sees the Roadster as a “halo car”: it showcases Tesla’s best engineering and could stimulate demand for its entire lineup.
Morningstar said: “A high-end sports car that is both the world’s fastest car and capable of briefly flying can powerfully underscore Tesla’s image as a unique luxury automaker. This should attract consumers to Tesla cars and could support delivery growth after the vehicle enters production in 2028.”
Morningstar noted that Tesla claims the Roadster can accelerate from a standstill to 60 miles per hour in just 0.81 seconds; if officially recorded on a track, that would be slightly less than half the current record of 1.66 seconds. Morningstar expects annual Roadster deliveries to remain below 2,000 units once production has ramped up, making it Tesla’s lowest-volume model.
Chris Camillo, author of Laughing at Wall Street, believes Musk’s willingness to risk public failure could itself bring a greater payoff. Camillo said on X: “Almost no CEO would willingly expose their company to that kind of public humiliation for a product with such limited financial upside. Elon did.” He said Musk is helping the U.S. regain its enthusiasm for pursuing seemingly impossible things, and his influence on future entrepreneurs could far outweigh any product Tesla sells. “Whether the Roadster makes Tesla a dollar or affects its stock price is almost beside the point,” he said. “We need more people willing to risk failure to pursue things that others think are impossible. Because when they succeed, we all benefit.” Camillo said he has been both bullish on Tesla and critical of it. He also questioned why people were so quick to turn the demonstration into a debate about whether it qualifies as a flying car. “Can’t we just admit that moment was unbelievably cool?” he added.
Musk even directly challenged F1 records over the weekend, promising stunts worthy of “Spider-Man” in the future. His weekend posts raised expectations beyond last week’s demonstration. “I think we can reach a peak speed of over Mach 0.5, or about 400 miles per hour,” he said, a new claim that exceeds the top speed of 230 miles per hour. He also claimed the Roadster has an exclusive advantage over Formula One cars. “Even without rocket thrusters, the Roadster will smash the best F1 track lap times because we use a fan system and active control surfaces, both of which are banned in F1,” Musk said. In another post, he said: “The Roadster can fly, spin, and cling to the underside of an overpass like Spider-Man.” Musk also said owners will be able to ask the vehicle to perform the demonstration stunts autonomously, and promised to build a test track with a loop-the-loop at Tesla’s Texas headquarters, “crazier than a Hot Wheels track.” Turing Award winner Yann LeCun, a researcher often called the “godfather of AI,” said the flying Roadster demonstration lacked practicality. Musk hit back. “I fart in your general direction,” he replied to LeCun. LeCun questioned the efficiency of the compressed-air system, estimating that even if air accounted for half the vehicle’s mass, it would provide less than 10 seconds of effective thrust. “In reality, probably closer to 5 seconds,” he said, adding that the vehicle would need a lightweight shell and a large onboard air tank. “The demo is amusing but totally impractical. Of course, you know that,” LeCun added. Roadster reservations cost up to $250,000, but delivery is not guaranteed. Tesla lists two-seat Performance and Thrust versions, requiring reservation payments of $50,000 and $250,000, respectively; there is also a single-seat Rocket version available by invitation only, with thrusters around the body. Reservations secure a place in line but do not guarantee delivery. The car has not been approved for public-road use, and where it can be sold depends on local laws. Musk acknowledged its safety limitations and said he could not be certain it would be legal to use everywhere.
A clarification on the model details: Tesla’s website specifically places the “not approved for public-road use” notice under the single-seat Rocket version. This means that the single-seat Rocket version equipped with the flight system has not been approved for public-road use. Tesla will announce its third-quarter results later Wednesday local time.
Morningstar expects investors to focus on the latest developments in fully autonomous taxis and humanoid robots, as well as free cash flow; the firm expects Tesla’s free cash flow to be negative for a second consecutive quarter.
How do retail investors view Tesla?
On the Stocktwits platform, retail investors’ overall sentiment toward Tesla has fallen from “bullish” a day ago to “neutral,” while discussion volume is “high.”
One user said: “Tesla, you bears have no idea—Tesla is going to take off like the Roadster on Monday!” Another user said: “Tesla, based on the legal process, if an acquisition is really going to happen, it will likely be announced at the next earnings release, scheduled for October 21.
Ready for takeoff? $500.” This year, Tesla’s stock has lagged the other “Magnificent Seven” companies, falling about 21% year to date and becoming the worst performer in the group.

From selling cars to selling autonomous technology: Tesla’s earnings must explain how it will deliver on its sci-fi vision of the future
From a business-model perspective, Cybercab seeks to extend one-time vehicle revenue into ongoing mobility revenue over the vehicle’s lifetime. A model designed specifically for autonomous driving could lower manufacturing and operating costs, but profitability will ultimately depend on paid miles, vehicle utilization, and the costs of depreciation, insurance, cleaning and maintenance, and remote support. Tesla has published a guide to hailing a Cybercab without a driver, but Morgan Stanley remains focused on the size of the Robotaxi fleet in Austin and how FSD adoption can expand further. It also emphasizes that utilization, safety performance and unit economics are the key tests in the next phase. Its rating remains “Hold,” with a price target of $400. Optimus expands the market for tasks that can be performed by robots; its core value comes from reliably completing work, not merely looking humanoid. From an engineering and investment perspective, Tesla’s experience in AI training, inference deployment and manufacturing could help reduce development and mass-production costs. But driving capabilities cannot directly substitute for the dexterous manipulation, contact-force control and reliable long-duration operation robots require. How much customers will pay depends on productive hours, task success rates and maintenance costs. The company disclosed in its second-quarter results that it was still installing its first-generation Optimus production line, so this part of its valuation primarily reflects future commercialization potential and cannot yet be treated as a mature source of profit. Investors are eager to learn more about mass-production plans and the delivery roadmap. The Roadster, meanwhile, serves as a branding and technology showcase: cold-gas thrusters provide brief bursts of thrust, while the fan system and active aerodynamics increase downforce, but these stunts do not directly demonstrate that autonomous driving or robotics can generate profits at scale.
What Tesla’s October 21 earnings truly need to connect is the cash-generating capacity of its automotive and energy storage businesses with the progress in turning AI investment into revenue. Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles and deployed 13.7GWh of energy storage in the third quarter. Goldman Sachs believes the outlook for FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus could matter more to the stock than quarterly earnings per share, while Morningstar expects free cash flow to be negative for a second consecutive quarter. $TSLA