I. Today’s Main Theme
A development worth watching is emerging in the market: Treasury yields and the dollar have both retreated, but tech stocks and crypto markets have not strengthened in tandem.
Over the past week, the market’s core focus has gradually shifted from “concerns that the Fed will continue raising rates” to “how long the AI investment boom can last in a high-interest-rate environment.”
Meanwhile, rising oil prices, a rebound in US inflation, and a widening fiscal deficit have made investors more cautious about risk assets.
On Friday, the Nasdaq fell 2.1% and the S&P 500 fell 1.1%. Bitcoin fluctuated around $81,000.
What really stands out is that financing costs have eased somewhat, but the market’s willingness to take risks has not clearly recovered.
II. Macro Highlights
① Tech stocks are undergoing a notable correction, and AI investment is facing market scrutiny
The focus of this latest US stock market correction is not the general consumer sector, but the previously strong tech and AI sectors. On Friday, AMD fell about 6%, Intel fell 5.8%, and Broadcom fell 4.5%. Investors are reassessing the cost of financing AI infrastructure and whether massive capital investments can generate sufficient profits.
Simply put, the market used to focus more on how much growth AI could bring; now it is seriously calculating how much that growth will cost. For US stocks, this means tech valuations are facing repricing.
For the crypto market, weaker risk appetite for tech stocks may also limit the rebound potential of BTC and altcoins. Next, watch earnings from major tech companies, especially whether AI capital expenditures are matched by profitability.
② Inflation remains elevated, but the Fed is in no rush to raise rates
US CPI rose 3.7% year over year in September, above the market expectation of 3.6% and the previous reading of 3.4%. Energy prices were a major driver. However, recent signals from Fed officials have been relatively cautious, with no indication of urgency to resume rate hikes immediately. Based on Friday’s market pricing, the probability of rates remaining unchanged at the October meeting was about 83%. This explains why Treasury yields fell despite hotter-than-expected inflation data. Also, US manufacturing output rose 0.3% month over month in September, as announced Friday, in line with expectations; August’s figure was revised from a 0.3% decline to a 0.2% decline. The economy has not clearly lost momentum, but manufacturing growth slowed in the third quarter.
For US stocks and crypto markets, the near-term positive is that expectations for rate hikes have cooled somewhat; the risk is that inflation may still constrain the scope for future easing.
③ Oil prices have once again become a major variable for global markets.
On Friday, Brent crude rose about 3.7% to close at $109.86 per barrel. The situation in the Middle East and uncertainty over energy supplies continue to support oil prices.
Why do rising oil prices affect Bitcoin? Higher energy costs could push up transportation, production, and consumer prices, adding to inflationary pressure. If inflation remains elevated, it will be harder for the Fed to shift toward easing. That is bad news for both tech stocks and crypto assets, which depend on liquidity and risk appetite. Next, watch whether oil prices retreat and whether rising energy prices continue to feed through to US inflation data.
④ US fiscal deficit nears $2 trillion
The latest data from the US Treasury shows that the fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2026 reached about $1.99 trillion, up from $1.78 trillion in the previous fiscal year. Interest payments on debt reached about $1.36 trillion. This means the US government must continue to bear enormous financing costs. A widening fiscal deficit does not necessarily mean Treasury yields will rise, but over the long term it could increase pressure from Treasury supply. If Treasury supply rises in the future while market demand is insufficient, long-term yields could rise again. This is a medium- to long-term variable that risk assets need to keep monitoring.
III. Relationship Between Treasuries and Risk Assets
The short version: short-term pressure from Treasuries has eased somewhat, but this has not yet translated into a clear upward catalyst for BTC.
According to US Treasury data for October 16:
US 2-year Treasury yield: 4.74%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day. US 10-year Treasury yield: 5.09%, down 1 basis point.
US 30-year Treasury yield: 5.43%, little changed.
10-year real yield: 2.74%, down 4 basis points. Over the latest five valid trading days, the 2-year yield fell a cumulative 6 basis points and the 10-year yield fell a cumulative 15 basis points. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 35 basis points, widening 2 basis points from the previous trading day, with a slight steepening of the yield curve.
Simply put, bond market stress has eased somewhat, but financing costs remain high. Now let’s look at BTC. As of this morning, BTC spot was down about 0.15% over 24 hours, with no clear rebound in response to falling Treasury yields. Calculated over the latest 20 valid US Treasury trading days, the rolling correlation between BTC’s daily return and the daily change in the 10-year Treasury yield was about -0.17. The calculation uses BTC’s UTC daily closing return and the change in the US 10-year Treasury yield, in basis points, for the corresponding date. This figure indicates a weak linear relationship between the two recently; one cannot simply assume that falling Treasury yields will necessarily drive BTC higher. The 60-day correlation data is currently unavailable.
Today’s assessment: the short-term impact of Treasuries on BTC is limited. Crypto-specific pressures are relatively high.
Although Treasury yields have retreated, BTC has not shown a clear advantage in attracting buying.
IV. Macro Radar
Macro Radar: Divergence is widening
Core reason: The US Dollar Index fell about 0.17% on Friday to around 101.87, while Treasury yields also declined somewhat.
But the Nasdaq weakened significantly, and BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $82.4 million on October 16. Meanwhile, the 10-year real yield remains as high as 2.74%, meaning financing costs are not low. This shows that although macro pressure has eased somewhat, risk appetite has not recovered.
Impact on BTC: Bearish
Key changes to watch:
First, if Treasury yields continue to fall, can tech stocks and BTC regain strength in tandem?
Second, can BTC spot ETFs return to sustained net inflows? The current macro environment cannot yet be considered broadly favorable.
V. BTC Market Data
Bitcoin is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with no clear signs of a trend recovery. According to bnBTCUSDT spot data:
Spot price: about $81,491
24-hour change: -0.15%
24-hour high: $81,770
24-hour low: $80,820
24-hour spot trading volume: about 7,039
Trading value corresponding to BTC: about 574 million USDT
In derivatives: BTCUSDT perpetual open interest is currently about 94,260 BTC. It is essentially unchanged from about 24 hours ago. The most recently settled funding rate was about 0.00373%, on an 8-hour interval. The next estimated funding rate is about 0.00639%, also on an 8-hour interval. The funding rate is positive, but does not indicate significant long crowding. OI has also not expanded abnormally.
From a price-structure perspective, BTC is below the average closing price of about $83,466 over the latest 20 complete UTC trading days. This means the short-term trend remains weak. Note that weak consolidation does not necessarily mean further declines, but until the price recovers, one cannot conclude that a rebound has begun based solely on falling Treasury yields.
VI. BTC Swing-Top Radar
Swing-Top Radar: 12 / 100
Data completeness: about 80%
Status: Normal
Price confirmation: Not confirmed
The current score is a low-confidence preliminary assessment.
Verified indicators show that leverage overheating is low, funding rates are moderate, and OI has not expanded significantly. BTC is below its recent moving averages and has not displayed the signs of overheating associated with a sustained, accelerating rally. Spot ETFs have seen net outflows, indicating weak buying support.
In this preliminary score, leverage overheating accounts for 2 points, price overheating for 0 points, funding quality risk for 10 points, and top-price confirmation for 0 points. Futures basis, some on-chain position data, and cross-platform spot fund flows are currently unavailable and have not been included in the score.
Missing data should not be treated as zero risk.
There is an important distinction here: a low Radar score does not mean BTC is already safe. It only indicates that there is currently insufficient evidence to support the view that “the market is at an overheated top.” The more important question now is whether the weak market can stabilize, not whether there will be concentrated selling after overheating at the highs.
Corresponding action: Do not proactively adjust long-term core positions based on the Swing-Top Radar for now, and there is no basis for judging the current market as a confirmed swing top. Continue to monitor price structure for swing positions.
VII. Today’s Market Plays
Hot topics
① ARB: Price support after the unlock event
Latest catalyst: Arbitrum had a scheduled unlock of about 92.65 million ARB on October 16, equivalent to about 1.56% of the circulating supply at the time. As of this morning, bnARBUSDT spot was down about 5.38% over 24 hours.
What to watch: The market is absorbing expectations of increased supply. Next, watch whether the price can stabilize and whether trading volume shows effective buying support.
Main risk: An unlock does not mean all tokens will be sold immediately, but when sentiment is weak, increased supply can amplify price volatility.
② CRO: Changing supply expectations following a large-scale unlock
Latest catalyst: Cronos plans to release about 1.17 billion CRO on October 17; reports indicate that these tokens are associated with reserve allocations.
What to watch: What really matters is not the unlock figure itself, but whether the unlocked tokens enter the circulating market and whether actual capital can absorb the potential supply.
Main risk: Reserve allocation does not mean immediate selling pressure on exchanges. Reliable data on actual transfers after the unlock and net exchange inflows are currently lacking, so it is not appropriate to conclude that concentrated selling is underway.
VIII. Key Upcoming Dates
From 08:00 on October 18 to 08:00 on October 19 Beijing time: US stock and Treasury markets are closed for the weekend. No major US economic data or confirmed major Fed speeches requiring particular attention during this period have been verified.
Crypto markets continue trading around the clock. This weekend, watch two things: first, whether there are new developments in the Middle East situation and energy supplies; second, whether BTC can maintain its price structure while US stock markets are closed, and whether weekend trading volume is sufficient to support a rebound.
Next week, the market will also see a new round of earnings reports from major tech companies, including Tesla, Netflix, and Meta. These reports will be an important test of whether risk appetite for tech stocks can recover.
Today’s Summary
The most notable thing about this market shift is not that BTC has yet to rise. It is that Treasury yields and the dollar have retreated, yet tech stocks and crypto markets still lack clear upward momentum. This shows that the market’s current problem is no longer entirely about financing costs.
Investors’ concerns about high valuations, returns on AI investment, and the capacity of risk assets to attract buying are becoming new pricing factors.
For BTC, the most important thing next is not to guess where the short-term bottom is, but to watch whether spot capital actually returns. A rebound will have a firmer foundation when easing macro pressure coincides with stronger buying support.#每周来晒

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