#美国9月PPI大超预期 The “data vacuum” is approaching. How will gold and silver prices move?

Recently, gold and silver prices rebounded somewhat after a downturn, showing signs of stabilizing. Wang Weimang, an analyst at Zhonghui Futures, told Futures Daily that the rebound in gold and silver prices was driven by interest rates and safe-haven demand.
“The rapid decline in long-term U.S. Treasury yields was the direct driver of the rebound in gold and silver prices,” Wang Weimang said. Against the backdrop of U.S. September inflation data exceeding expectations, AI technology stocks faced a global sell-off, with funds flocking to the U.S. Treasury market for safety. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index retreated from its highs.
As a result, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets fell significantly, supporting gold prices.
“Market demand for gold as a safe haven is increasing,” he added. The situation in the Middle East has continued to heat up in recent days, boosting short-term safe-haven demand and benefiting precious metals.
In addition, concerns about AI companies’ high debt levels and lofty valuations have prompted funds to exit high-valuation risk assets, with some shifting to safe-haven assets such as precious metals.
On interest rates, expectations for Fed rate hikes have cooled. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh did not mention the higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data or reiterate that “inflation is too high” during the 2026 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. As a result, the market-implied probability of a Fed rate hike in October plunged from around 27% to below 15%.
Wang Weimang said these signals only mean that “the valve has been turned,” not that “the channel has been opened.” The probability of a Fed rate hike in December remains relatively high, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain above 5%, indicating that core inflation is still sticky.
He cautioned that although gold retains its safe-haven appeal, elevated oil prices will push inflation higher and, in turn, strengthen market expectations for Fed rate hikes, hindering a sustained rebound in gold prices.
Looking ahead, Wang Weimang said the market will enter a “data vacuum” next week—the Fed will enter its pre-FOMC meeting blackout period starting October 17, and its next policy meeting will not take place until October 27–28 (the decision will be announced at 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 29; it is a regular monthly meeting with no dot plot).
All key U.S. data, including CPI, PPI and nonfarm payrolls, have now been released, leaving little first-tier data to guide the market next week. As a result, gold and silver prices will be driven by long-term U.S. Treasury yields, the U.S. Dollar Index, the U.S. equities AI sector, and the situation in the Middle East.