#美股存储板块跌幅扩大 The storage sector has shifted from “the whole sector rising together” to a structural rally driven by companies consistently beating earnings expectations and winning renewed valuation recognition. Next, it is more likely to see a recovery rebound first, followed by divergence.

Fundamentals have not weakened yet
Micron's FY2026 revenue was about $133.2 billion, up 256% year over year; full-year gross margin was about 81%. Its revenue guidance for the next quarter is about $61.5 billion, versus the market's previous expectation of about $56.8 billion. The company still expects supply and demand for memory to remain tight in 2027 and 2028.
Prices are also continuing to rise. Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for fourth-quarter 2026 DRAM contract price growth to 10%–15% quarter over quarter, and NAND to 15%–20%; enterprise SSDs are stronger, with a forecast of 23%–28%.
This suggests the downturn is mainly driven by changes in valuations and expectations, while the industry cycle has not yet peaked across the board.

The challenge for this rally has changed
Memory stocks have surged over the past year, and earnings expectations have also been revised sharply upward. By mid-October, Samsung and SK Hynix shares had fallen about 35% from their highs.
For share prices to keep rising rapidly, new profit growth is needed.
Morgan Stanley estimates that DRAM prices would need to rise about 70% quarter over quarter from current levels to sustain the previous pace; the actual fourth-quarter forecast is only 10%–15%.
Therefore, further gains will rely more on HBM, enterprise SSDs and high-performance DRAM, while ordinary consumer products will contribute less.

Three things to watch next
· AI spending by cloud providers: Continued investment by Microsoft, Google and Amazon would provide a foundation for memory demand.
· Whether prices can continue to beat expectations: If fourth-quarter price increases materialize and guidance for next year remains strong, share prices are more likely to form a medium-term bottom.
· When new supply will come online: Capacity expansion takes time, so the real turning point is more likely to come after the second half of 2027; the near term will remain structurally undersupplied.
Therefore, the U.S. memory sector still has room to run, but volatility will increase significantly. Opportunities are more concentrated in companies like Micron, with higher shares of HBM and high-performance products, rather than in a repeat of the previous one-way surge across the entire sector. If earnings continue to beat expectations, share prices may first complete a valuation recovery; if profits remain very strong but share prices stop being revised upward, the rally will enter a consolidation phase at elevated levels.#每周来晒