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This weekend’s market action has really worn both bulls and bears down.

Watching BTC hover around $81k feels like waiting for the other shoe to drop. Another huge bearish wick appeared overnight. It looked scary, but after breaking below $81k, the price was yanked back up, reclaiming $81.4k in under half an hour. Volume didn’t explode out of control, and a pile of buy orders at lower levels was absorbing the selling. To me, this looks more like a “liquidation-driven fakeout” than a downward trend reversal.

It feels like big money used the panic to carry out a massive rotation, with some people getting out and others taking the opportunity to buy in heavily. This kind of “high-volume drop” is itself a sign of fierce competition between bulls and bears.

Liquidations have been pretty intense. According to Ember, a whale that had previously opened a $187 million long position with maximum leverage saw its 4,890 ETH long liquidated at $2,356 in the drop at 5 a.m. today, with the position worth $11.74 million. That was the lowest price ETH reached early this morning, and the liquidation may have contributed to it.

The key point is that after the liquidations, OI (open interest) barely fell at all. BTC futures OI is still around $52.6 billion, down just 0.14%. What does that mean? Leverage hasn’t been fully flushed out; it’s just a new batch of traders carrying the positions, and the market’s vulnerability hasn’t been addressed at all.

Right now, the market atmosphere feels a bit “cold on the outside, hot on the inside.” On the surface, the macro environment really is giving people a headache. U.S. inflation data is weighing heavily on everyone, and people are anxiously awaiting the Fed’s rate decision meeting at the end of the month, worried about another hawkish signal. So big money is being cautious and watching from the sidelines. Not to mention geopolitics: every time oil prices fluctuate, people start debating the safe-haven properties of risk assets again, so market sentiment naturally remains poor.

Altcoins, needless to say, are a “complete mess” again. Familiar names like SOL and ETH have also pulled back, and are clearly weaker than BTC. The market is no longer in the old era when “the big brother rises, then the little brothers keep the party going.” Coins without solid fundamentals, real users, and ecosystem support are “swimming naked” in this pullback. Capital is seeking shelter in places with greater certainty, so altcoin trading can basically be put aside for now.

And don’t forget that potential landmine: MSCI finalized new rules on the 15th, and “Bitcoin hoarding companies” like Strategy could be dropped from the index after November 30. JPMorgan estimated $2.8 billion in passive selling pressure. The troubling part is that Strategy’s market cap is now lower than the value of the 848k bitcoins it holds—the premium is gone, so the flywheel of issuing shares to buy Bitcoin can no longer turn. This isn’t just about MSTR; the entire “Bitcoin treasury” model is being repriced.

With the macro environment looking poor, reduce leverage where possible and don’t mess around with altcoins, especially high-beta pure speculation plays. If you have cash, you can keep an eye on strong coins with real cash flow and AI or ZK narratives, and consider them once the broader market stabilizes. The top priority right now is protecting your principal!

The strategy for what comes next is really just one word: endure. Stop thinking about short-term trades and trying to guess whether tomorrow will be up or down—that’s just asking for misery.

The U you’re holding is your biggest source of confidence. Be patient and wait for market sentiment to stabilize and for a clear sign that the decline has stopped. Around $80k is an important psychological level. If the price drops again and stabilizes, it could be a good opportunity to build a position. Panic is often followed by opportunity.

For those stuck in losing positions: if you’re holding major coins and your leverage isn’t high, don’t sell at a loss. Selling now could mean selling right at the bottom. Better to lie low and wait it out, using time to create room to recover. After all, who knows whether the next rally might come when you least expect it?

For macro, keep an eye on the usual three: the dollar, Treasury yields, and net ETF inflows. When rate-cut expectations shift back and forth, risk assets will get shaken up first.

In short, watch more and trade less this weekend. Protect your principal; staying alive matters more than anything. $ETH