Fidelity data: Bitcoin and the U.S. 10-year real yield have turned positively correlated, with the correlation rising above 0.6 in 2026, a record high.

The traditional negative-correlation logic of “rising interest rates = falling crypto prices” has undergone a major reversal!
It is now the positive-correlation logic of “rising interest rates = rising risk = rising crypto prices,” with the chain as follows—
Fiscal imbalance→deficit hits a post-pandemic high→massive Treasury issuance + rising sovereign risk premium→U.S. Treasury yields surge→interest expenses soar→deficit expands further (a vicious cycle)→concerns over the dollar’s credibility and long-term purchasing power intensify→Bitcoin, due to its fixed supply and scarcity, becomes a new choice for hedging sovereign credit risk