📊 Gold Finance · October 16 News Brief

1️⃣ Fed Chair Warsh spoke at the IMF annual meeting and "said nothing" about whether to raise rates in October, making clear he would no longer preview policy in advance. Markets interpreted this as a sign he is in no rush to act in October, with the probability of a rate hike that month plunging from about 28% the previous day to around 15%.
2️⃣ Fears over last night's red-hot PPI (6.3% annual rate, the highest in four years) subsided. Bitcoin violently rebounded above 82,000 after falling below 80k intraday (low of 79694). Liquidations across the crypto market totaled $929 million in 24 hours, with longs taking a $777 million bloodbath.
3️⃣ But the rebound lacks conviction: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw just $5 million in net inflows that day (after $261 million in outflows the previous day), and the market-implied probability of reaching 100k before Christmas has fallen to 9.7%. Overall, capital is shifting to defensive assets, with gold and U.S. Treasuries in demand.
⚠️ In a nutshell: Inflation is still burning, but the Fed will most likely stand pat in October. Short-term bearish news has run its course, triggering a rebound, but it is driven by short covering—not fresh money coming in. The 80k–84,000 range will remain volatile, so don't chase the rally and keep your position size under control.