Last week, I was still watching whether BTC could decisively break through resistance at $86,500, viewing the 2026 opening price of $87,570 as a key psychological level. But after the CPI data was released, that framework needs to be adjusted.

Three specific adjustments:

First, move BTC’s watch range lower. Shift focus from “can it break above $86,000?” to “can it hold support between $81,000 and $82,000?” BTC briefly fell to around $81,700 this week. This area has repeatedly attracted dip buyers recently. If this support is decisively broken, the medium-term structure will need to be reassessed.

Second, reduce exposure to a “fall rally.” Google Trends data shows that search interest in “bitcoin” has fallen to a multi-year low, with retail sentiment clearly cooling. Although periods of retail apathy have often coincided with medium- to long-term bottoms historically, there is a lack of fresh capital to drive prices in the short term, making chasing rallies unattractive.

Third, put the macro data calendar ahead of technical charts. Before the Fed meeting on October 27–28 next week, PPI once again came in above expectations (up 1.3% month over month, its largest increase since March 2022). Although rate hikes are still not the market’s base-case scenario, the marginal shift is already hawkish. Until the policy path becomes clearer, controlling position sizes matters more than pursuing returns.

🎯 One-sentence summary of this week’s moves: no adding to positions, no panic selling, hold the lower end of the range, and wait for the data to speak. #每周来晒 #沃什IMF讲话