September core CPI rose 0.33% month over month, marking a strong gain for the second consecutive month; PPI rose 1.3% month over month, its biggest increase since March 2022. With the data right in front of them, the market had expected Warsh to emphasize that “inflation is too high,” but he did not mention the data at all. He said: “I will not prejudge the outcome of the meeting. I do not believe in saying right now what I might do at the upcoming meeting.”

That statement is more worth pondering than any hawkish rhetoric. Since taking office, Warsh has twice declined to publish an interest-rate “dot plot” and has explicitly opposed forward guidance, saying the market should price things based on economic data. Commonwealth Bank of Australia senior strategist Kristina Clifton put it plainly: Warsh’s failure to reiterate that inflation is too high disappointed the market, pushing the dollar lower.

This means the Fed’s policy communication framework is being systematically reshaped. Warsh has kept the option of “not raising rates” for himself, while shifting the anxiety of “guessing the direction” to the market. The probability of a rate hike in October plunged from over 25% to below 15% after his remarks—the market is not interpreting signals, but repricing “the absence of signals.”

📊 My view: The probability of holding rates steady in October has risen markedly, but a December rate hike remains the baseline expectation for most traders. Warsh’s “deliberate ambiguity” is not a dovish shift, but a change in the communication mechanism. The real question has shifted from “whether to hike” to “whether Warsh even wants the market to know in advance.”#每周来晒 #沃什IMF讲话