#沃什IMF讲话 #每周来晒 In the short term, BTC is more likely to rebound first, then trade sideways. Warsh's remarks are somewhat supportive of risk assets, but they are not enough to fuel a major one-way rally.

What the remarks actually mean
Warsh did not signal further rate hikes, but emphasized that the Fed would make decisions based on incoming data. As a result, the market lowered the probability of an October rate hike from above 25% to around 15%, and the dollar weakened in the short term. This amounts to “not turning hawkish in advance,” not a shift toward rate cuts.
The Fed still puts price stability first; it has only temporarily retained policy flexibility.

What comes next for BTC
Rebound bias: With rate hike expectations cooling, pressure from the dollar and Treasury yields has eased, giving BTC a chance to continue recovering.
Prone to volatility: U.S. core CPI rose 0.33% month over month in September, and underlying inflation remains strong. If it heats up again, tightening trades may return.
Key dividing line: BTC is currently around $82.1k, with an intraday low of around $80.2k. Holding $80k would allow the recovery to continue; a quick drop back below $79k would indicate that the rebound has not yet gained a firm footing.

These remarks give BTC some breathing room in the short term. A rebound is possible, but a reversal still needs confirmation from prices and macro data. $BTC