#美国9月PPI大超预期

The overall market is in a state of inching upward today. Yesterday’s wick scared quite a few people into a cold sweat, with Bitcoin at one point crashing below $80,000. Thankfully, everyone managed to buy it back up, and it is now hovering around $82,000. It has risen, but it still feels somewhat shaky.

The macro hand is still gripping the market by the throat. CPI and PPI both came in above expectations in succession. Although the probability of a rate hike has fallen from 49%, the market is still on edge. $929 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, including $777 million in longs. This is not a reversal—it is clearly a breather after short covering and the clearing of panic selling. On-chain ETF funds are still flowing out, and institutions have not returned to buy the dip. The Fear and Greed Index jumped from 53 to 63. It looks “greedy,” but don’t be fooled by the number: sentiment recovery and a trend reversal are two different things.

Sector divergence is obvious, with money shifting from Meme toward narrative-driven sectors,

AI, DePIN, and Layer2 narrative sectors are performing well, with quite a few tokens surging by more than 10% in a single day. INJ and STRK have rallied strongly, while CRV (DeFi) is also up more than 7% in 24h. As seen in the chart, there has been a short-term rebound impulse. Meme and CeFi are the only weaker sectors, with funds clearly shifting from speculative dog coins toward more credible narrative sectors.

The broader environment is still shrouded in dark clouds. The Fed’s October meeting is approaching, and high interest rates will likely remain in place, while Treasury yields have soared. On top of that, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have sent oil prices sharply higher, and the dollar index is also strong. From a macro perspective, risk assets are being suppressed. There are also major token unlocks this month for SUI, EIGEN, and others, creating considerable potential selling pressure. The market is currently just existing liquidity moving back and forth in search of hot sectors.

Operationally, don’t get carried away chasing highs. The AI sector is the current hot spot, but it may be better to wait for a pullback and then select the stronger names; for DeFi veteran CRV, keep a close eye on the 0.33-0.34 support in the short term, and consider holding if it remains stable. In the current market, position sizing is the most important thing. Keep some ammunition in reserve and wait until the Fed’s uncertainty is resolved👋.
Right now, it is “light on the index, heavy on sectors.” As long as Bitcoin holds steady, that is enough; the rest comes down to seeing whose story is told best. At this level, it is better to miss an opportunity than to make a mistake. Preserving principal and waiting for a genuine right-side signal is the way to go. $BTC
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