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Global markets closed, and a miracle happened: The Nasdaq miraculously recovered all of last night’s losses, while the S&P 500 also ended its three-session losing streak. Even more astonishingly, buying demand for U.S. Treasuries did not disappear after U.S. stocks rose, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 5.06%.
1. The one who came to the rescue was neither the Federal Reserve nor Trump, but Jensen Huang. Jensen Huang said that CoreWeave’s financial strength is improving every day and that its cost of capital is “actually declining,” so NVIDIA does not need to provide it with backstop support (Note: NVIDIA is CoreWeave’s second-largest shareholder, with an approximately 10% stake). After Jensen Huang made these remarks (helping prevent panic in the AI sector from spreading further), U.S. stocks began to rebound. Ultimately, the Nasdaq rose 0.08%, the S&P 500 rose 0.33%, and the Dow Jones rose 1.08%. Barron’s even reported the story under the headline “NVIDIA CEO Just Saved the Market.” However, it is still too early to say that the market is out of danger. Although Jensen Huang saved U.S. stocks, NVIDIA’s share price fell 1.8% that day, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.9%. 2. Today’s performance of the South Korean stock market will be an important indicator of whether the global AI trade can stop the bleeding. Last night’s U.S. market gave Asian stock markets almost no guidance. Although U.S. stocks closed higher, the semiconductor sector did not truly stabilize. South Korea has just experienced an extremely severe sell-off. If a clear technical rebound emerges today, market panic will ease. Conversely, even a 1% decline would make investors feel that “the decline is not over yet.” 3. Wosh’s speech at 11:30 a.m. Beijing time (expected to last about 30 minutes) is also being closely watched by global investors. The timing of this speech is particularly interesting, as it comes during Asian trading hours; starting tomorrow, the Federal Reserve will enter its pre-meeting blackout period. Today, Wosh must answer the question the market cares about most: With inflation expanding, can the Federal Reserve continue to wait? There will be three scenarios: restrained hawkishness (emphasizing that inflation is too high and retaining the right to raise rates, but not committing to action in October), clear hawkishness (emphasizing that inflation is concerning and that continued action is needed), and unexpected dovishness (emphasizing the need to observe the lagged effects of the September rate hike). After his speech, the market will experience an emotional release. It is best to watch the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield first, rather than the 10-year yield