Diesel Prices Surge, the “Invisible Bomb” of Producer-Side Inflation

Tonight’s PPI data includes one subcategory I’m paying especially close attention to: diesel.

Many people focus only on gasoline, thinking that rising gasoline prices mean energy prices are rising. But diesel is the real driver of producer-side inflation. Diesel is used for truck transportation, agricultural machinery, construction equipment, and factory power generation. When diesel prices rise, costs across all logistics-dependent industries rise with them.

The title of an analysis by Jin10 Data is very direct: “The Inflationary Impact of Surging Diesel Prices Is Far from Over.” Bernard Yaros of Oxford Economics expects the sharp rise in energy prices in early October to drive September PPI up 0.6% month on month. Diesel accounts for a large share of the “energy prices” he referred to.

The impact of rising diesel prices is “invisible.” Unlike gasoline price increases, it will not be directly reflected on gas station signs, but it will seep into the prices of nearly all goods. Every package you have delivered, every pound of vegetables, and every piece of steel you buy carries diesel costs in the background. As diesel prices continue to rise, these costs will sooner or later be passed on to end consumers.

That is why I say PPI is more worth watching than CPI. CPI is the “result,” while PPI is the “cause.” If the energy subcategory of tonight’s PPI continues to surge, CPI will face further upward pressure over the next few months. The Federal Reserve will not easily cut interest rates and may even continue raising them.

For BTC, rising diesel prices are an indirect but persistent headwind. They mean inflation will not disappear quickly, interest rates will not fall quickly, and valuation pressure on risk assets will persist. My strategy remains the same: don’t chase rallies, don’t take oversized positions, and keep plenty of cash on hand for opportunities.

#每周来晒 #U.S. September PPI data released
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