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#USSeptemberPPIDataRelease

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September will be released today at 20:30 Beijing time—and it could trigger a new wave of market volatility. Yesterday, BTC broke sharply to the downside, and now all eyes are on this release.

📊 What does the market expect from the PPI?

The consensus forecast calls for a 0.5–0.6% m/m increase in headline PPI (versus 0.4% in August)—the strongest increase in four months. Core PPI (excluding food and energy) is expected to come in at +0.3% m/m. On a y/y basis, headline PPI could slow to 5.3% from 5.4%, while core PPI could fall to 4.4% from 4.6%.

Is there a risk of a surprise? Yesterday’s CPI already exceeded expectations: inflation rose to 3.7% y/y versus the forecast. If today’s PPI also comes in “hot,” it will confirm that inflationary pressure at the producer level is not easing, meaning the Fed could further toughen its rhetoric.

📉 BTC plunged yesterday: what happened?

BTC fell below $81 000, reaching an intraday low near $80 161. The price lost support at the 50-day SMA (~$81 196) and the 23.6% Fibonacci level (~$81 422). The daily RSI is at 43.2, below the neutral level of 50, signaling weakening momentum. The reason is rising Treasury yields after the CPI and growing expectations of another Fed rate hike.

Key levels for today:

· 🔴 Resistance: $81 200–$81 400 (the lost 50-SMA + Fibonacci zone), followed by $84 000–$84 600 (the 20-SMA and upper Bollinger Band on the 4H chart)
· 🟢 Support: $80 000 (psychological threshold), $77 741 (38.2% Fibonacci), $78 000 (“real market price” zone)
· 📉 Risk scenario: if BTC consolidates below $80 000, it could fall toward $74 765 (50% Fibonacci) and $72 000–$73 000 (100-day SMA)

💡 Forecast for today: two scenarios

🐂 If PPI is below expectations (≤0.4% m/m): Pressure on rates will ease, Treasury yields will move lower, and BTC may attempt to return to $82 000–$83 000. A sustained reversal requires consolidation above $81 400—only then can we talk about a recovery of the uptrend structure.

🐻 If PPI is in line with or above expectations (0.5–0.6% m/m): Expectations of Fed tightening will intensify, and $80 000 may not hold. A confirmed break of this level (a daily candle closing below it) would open the way to $77 700 and lower. Analysts also allow for deeper scenarios down to $70 000–$65 000 if BTC consolidates below $80 108.

⚡️ What to do?

Today is a classic “data-driven game.” Volatility upon the PPI release could be sharp, so it is important to:

1. Avoid entering positions 30 minutes before the release—slippage risk is at its highest
2. Monitor the reaction of 10-year Treasury yields—they are the main indicator for risk assets
3. Pay attention to volumes—if the break below $80 000 occurs on increased volume, it is a signal to exercise caution

As for me, I believe the market is in wait-and-see mode ahead of the PPI release, and BTC’s direction will be determined precisely after 20:30 Beijing time. If $80 000 breaks downward on high volume, a test of $77 000–$78 000 is likely. If there is a low-inflation surprise, I expect a rebound to $83 000.

💬 What do you think—will today’s PPI come in above or below expectations? And will BTC hold above $80 000?

Share your forecasts in the comments.
$MU

‌$AMD