#美国9月PPI数据公布 PPI poses the question at 20:30 tonight: CPI just pushed the October rate-hike probability to 42%—will PPI deliver the “finishing blow” or “put out the fire”?

Yesterday’s CPI “beat expectations on both fronts” (headline 3.7%/core 2.6%), sending the October rate-hike probability soaring from 22% to 42% overnight. Tonight at 20:30, September PPI takes the stage. First, the forecast: the market expects headline PPI to rise 0.6% month-on-month (with energy continuing to drive it), meaning “inflationary pressure remains significant.”

Why does PPI matter?
It is the “upstream” of CPI—price increases on the production side are passed on to consumers. Yesterday’s CPI proved “sticky downstream inflation.” If PPI also beats expectations tonight, it means “the upstream is smoking too”—inflation is not just an illusion caused by oil prices, but confirmed across the entire chain.

Three scenarios:

- PPI meets expectations (0.4-0.5% month-on-month) → “CPI has already delivered the bad news,” the negative catalyst is priced in, and risk assets stabilize and rebound
​
- PPI beats expectations (≥0.6%) → sticky inflation across the entire chain is confirmed, the October rate-hike probability surges toward 50%+, and gold, U.S. stocks, and BTC all come under pressure
​
- PPI comes in below expectations → the “CPI was just oil-price noise” narrative returns, rate-hike expectations cool, and BTC could rebound

Who will react the most?
The order remains the same as yesterday: gold > U.S. stocks > BTC—but the marginal impact will be smaller than CPI’s: yesterday’s CPI had already priced in most of the hawkish expectations, so PPI is more of a “confirmation” than a “new shock.”

Action: Don’t take large positions before the data; choose your side after 20:30—the $82K lifeline remains unchanged: holding it means bottom-range consolidation, while a breakdown means watching $80K.

In one sentence: CPI is the “verdict,” while PPI is the “appeal review”—if the review upholds the verdict, all is well; if it changes the verdict, the sentence gets harsher. At 20:30 tonight, let’s wait for the exam paper. #每周来晒