#美国9月CPI超预期 U.S. September CPI and core CPI both exceeded expectations, seemingly due to energy prices—energy prices rose 5.2% month on month in September, while gasoline prices surged 34.2% year on year. But what truly unsettled the market was that core CPI, which excludes energy and food, also accelerated to 2.6%, with prices for recreation, airfares, healthcare, and apparel all rising. This indicates that inflationary pressure has spread from energy to broader areas of the economy, rather than being a temporary shock.

Expectations of rate cuts are rapidly being replaced by expectations of rate hikes. After the inflation data was released, market bets on a 25-basis-point rate hike in October jumped from about 22% before the data to 43.7%. More importantly, New York Fed President Williams explicitly said that “one more rate hike this year would be appropriate,” while Boston Fed President Collins also supported further policy tightening before year-end. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 3.75%–4% in September; if it acts again in October or December, financing costs will rise further. Citi had originally been the only institution insisting that rates would not be adjusted again this year, but after the CPI data, it also shifted to expecting a rate hike in December—the last “dovish” institution turning hawkish means that market consensus has undergone a fundamental shift.

Gold and crypto markets bore the brunt. After the data was released, spot gold fell below $4,100 per ounce, silver plunged more than 5%, and Bitcoin quickly dropped from around $83,800 to below $82,000. As a non-yielding asset, gold is directly weakened by rising rate-hike expectations; although some investors view Bitcoin as “digital gold,” its nature as a risk asset has been fully exposed in a tightening-liquidity environment. By comparison, U.S. stocks also came under pressure, but to a relatively lesser extent, with the S&P 500 falling about 1.1% and the Nasdaq dropping about 1.7%. Crypto markets are more sensitive to interest-rate expectations than U.S. stocks, resulting in greater volatility.

Given this situation, the priority in terms of trading strategy should be to control position sizes. After the CPI data is released, the market will go through a period of repricing, and the first wave of volatility often contains an emotional component. Rather than betting while the direction remains unclear, it is better to reduce positions and retain cash, then wait for two signals to be confirmed before acting: first, the Federal Reserve’s actual decision at its October 27–28 policy meeting; and second, whether subsequent data shows clear signs of a decline in core inflation. If core inflation remains persistently above 2.5%, the rate-hike path could be more aggressive than the market is currently pricing in, in which case any attempt to “buy the dip” should be approached with extreme caution. Waiting for stabilization is more important than rushing to catch a rebound.