#BTC跌破8.2万

This morning's wick ultimately took out “Maji Big Bro” and a whole batch of leveraged longs. BTC wicked down to just above $80,000, sending total liquidations across the network to $485 million in one hour, including $464 million in long positions, with ETH alone accounting for $200 million.

Huang Licheng turned $56,000 into $12.25 million over four months, only to be liquidated in this move and knocked back down to $21,800—meaning he worked for nothing for more than half a year and ended up losing money. There is also a whale holding a $352 million ETH long that is now sitting on nearly $19 million in unrealized losses, with the position just $60 away from liquidation. A slight further drop would trigger a precise blowout.

Although this wick was painful, it may not necessarily be a bad thing. BTC has now retested the area around $81,000 for the third time, and on-chain data shows that the losses from each drop are actually shrinking, indicating that panic selling is decreasing. More of the market consists of wavering holders cutting losses and exiting, rather than a full-scale collapse.

On the macro front, higher-than-expected US inflation is indeed weighing on risk assets, but this repeated testing of support in the crypto market looks more like a cleanup of weak hands to build momentum for the next wave.

There is no need to mention altcoins—ETH has already fallen below $2,400, and other small-cap coins are seeing bloodshed everywhere. But the more challenging the situation, the more closely you should watch assets with real narratives and capital attention, rather than blindly buying the dip in junk coins.

This is certainly not the time to chase shorts. The $80,000 level has already been tested three times; a break would mean a genuine collapse, while holding would mean a false breakdown. It is advisable to wait for signs of stabilization, such as a high-volume bullish candle reclaiming $81,000, before considering scaling into longs.

Do not make your position too large, as macro pressure remains and the Federal Reserve can change its stance at the drop of a hat. This may be the eve of “being greedy when others are fearful,” but do not get greedy too early. Waiting until the exchange of positions is cleaner before entering is also fine. $ETH