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If rate hikes are paused in October, can BTC and U.S. stocks rebound?
Don’t rush to treat a pause as bullish! The market has already priced it in. The real variable is whether the Federal Reserve will continue tightening after the pause.
If core CPI and services inflation continue to fall, risk assets may have a chance to see their valuations recover. If inflation remains sticky, the pause may only be a lull before the storm.
What you should really watch is whether rate expectations can decline, Treasury yields can fall, and liquidity can genuinely improve.
The turning point for BTC and U.S. stocks doesn’t lie in one fewer rate hike. It lies in the market beginning to believe that the tightening cycle is truly nearing its end.
In plain English: A pause is only a signal; a pivot is the real turning point.