What’s Still Missing for a BTC Rebound?

The Triple Test of CPI, Real Interest Rates, and Spot Buying
The key to a BTC rebound is not just whether CPI can cool down,
but whether inflation data can push real interest rates lower and ultimately translate into sustained spot buying.
① CPI below expectations, creating room for a shift in monetary policy;
② Real interest rates decline, reducing the opportunity cost of holding BTC;
③ ETF funds continue to record net inflows, proving that incremental capital is truly entering the market.
Forward-looking assessment: If favorable CPI data fails to bring lower real interest rates and a return of spot capital, the rebound is more likely to be a short-term sentiment recovery;
Only when macro pressures ease and spot accumulation continues can BTC be expected to move from an oversold rebound toward a trend reversal.
The real signal is whether new capital is placing buy orders behind the rally.