Will Cooling Rate-Hike Expectations Give Gold a Chance to Rebound?

The gold market faces a dual test this week from interest-rate expectations and safe-haven demand. The U.S. September CPI is due to be released, after which Wosh will speak at the IMF annual meeting. The market may use these developments to reassess the pricing of the dollar, real interest rates, and gold.
Gold itself generates no interest, so when the market expects interest rates to fall and real yields to decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold typically decreases. If core inflation remains moderate, Wosh does not send a stronger hawkish tightening signal, and the dollar and real yields weaken in tandem, gold may gain upward momentum.
However, it is worth noting that if headline inflation rises significantly due to higher energy prices, the market may also worry that high interest rates will persist for longer. Once the dollar strengthens and real yields rise, gold could come under pressure. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks can provide safe-haven support, but that does not necessarily mean gold prices will rise.
Therefore, when trading gold this week, one cannot simply equate falling inflation with rising gold prices, nor directly interpret higher inflation as bullish for gold. What truly matters is how the inflation data changes interest-rate expectations and how the dollar and real yields respond.
Do you think gold will price in rate-cut expectations first this week, or will it remain under pressure from high interest rates? Compared with U.S. stocks, would you rather focus on gold’s safe-haven value?#美国9月CPI即将公布 #每周来晒 $AAPL