Before tonight’s September CPI release, August CPI rose 0.4% month over month and core CPI rose 0.3%, pushing the September FOMC toward its first rate hike in more than three years, with the probability briefly reaching about 70%;

Ahead of the October 27–28 meeting, CME’s odds of another rate hike have fallen to just 17%.
Institutions expect headline CPI to rise to 3.6% year over year and 0.6% month over month in September, with energy as the main driver;
core CPI is expected to rise 2.5% year over year and 0.2% month over month, below the previous 0.3%.
Whether core CPI can hold at 0.2% month over month is the key threshold: if it rises to 0.3%, expectations for a rate hike this month will heat up again;
if it comes in at 0.2%, the Federal Reserve is more likely to stand pat and push the decision to December. Thursday’s PPI will provide additional confirmation;
CICC had previously viewed August core CPI at 0.3% as the threshold for a restart, while the market is betting that this round of tightening will look more like a one-off recalibration.