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Want to know why tonight’s 20:30 CPI is so important?
Three things you must know:
① The November midterm elections: the seats in both chambers will directly determine the extent of Trump’s power during the second half of his term. What matters most to us is whether the Crypto Structure Act can pass during Trump’s term.
② Whether the probability of a Fed rate hike at the end of the month will rise, or even whether there will be a hike at all, is highly related to tonight’s data.
③ By influencing the momentum of the midterm elections, this data will directly affect Trump’s political, military, economic, and other directions during the second half of his term.
Conclusion:
1. In line with expectations: Although inflation rebounds, it remains within expectations. This is already as good as it can get. The impact will be small, but it will slightly increase the probability of a rate hike at the end of the month, though a hike will not be mandatory.
2. Above expectations: The probability of a rate hike at the end of the month will rise significantly, and the market will come under severe pressure.
3. Below expectations or even below the previous reading: This would be the biggest advantage, indicating that inflation is under control. The probability of a rate hike will decline, and the new rate-hike cycle will automatically come to an end.
Tonight, scenario one is estimated to have the highest probability, followed by scenario three, while scenario two is slightly less likely. If the midterm elections are completely derailed by a single CPI reading, the House will basically lose its seats, and the Senate will also face intense battles. That would be a devastating blow to Trump’s “financiers”!
Before the August CPI release, and with last month’s CPI and the Fed’s rate decision, Sao Ge made a desperate counterattack and heavily positioned long. Whether he can continue this countertrend positioning for three consecutive months is still unclear. Tonight, Sao Ge will monitor market changes in real time with everyone in the livestream and position accordingly!
Get your positions ready for a decisive hunting moment!
#美国9月CPI即将公布