Tonight at 20:30, the decisive CPI battle begins—this data could determine Trump's midterm survival! So what impact will it have on major assets?

First, let's look at the current forecasts. All forecasts are higher than the previous readings, which is bearish relative to expectations. If the released data meets or exceeds expectations, the probability of another Fed rate hike at the end of the month will increase, putting further pressure on the market;
Whether this rate-hike cycle will continue or come to an abrupt halt basically depends entirely on this CPI
Before looking at this CPI, let's first look at next month's midterm elections. At present, the factors having the greatest impact on voter sentiment are fuel prices, living costs, and other essential costs of living;
Recently, Trump and Putin reached an agreement to release diesel reserves, with the aim of compressing global fuel prices, lowering living costs, and generating some political achievements for themselves. However, judging from the results, the impact has been minimal. Crude oil prices remain the decisive factor for living costs, and the Middle East is still the biggest influence. As long as the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, it will be difficult for crude oil prices to fall. Although the nonfarm payrolls data at the beginning of the month was sharply revised, lowering rate-hike expectations, people will not simply accept a decline in the data in the face of CPI; instead, they will look at when domestic fuel costs actually fall. Everyone knows this and will not focus on just one data point!
If the midterm elections fail and either chamber is lost, the probability of the subsequent crypto framework bill passing will be even lower;
If the actual reading equals or is lower than expectations, it will be barely acceptable, preserving some confidence that inflation is under control;
If the released reading is equal to or lower than the previous reading, it is estimated that the US and Iran will most likely reach a new agreement, at which point crude oil prices will quickly retreat, similar to the decline in July;
This will rapidly heat up risk assets, and the market may see a major rally;
Tonight remains extremely critical
The ranking by the magnitude of the data's impact is as follows
US Dollar Index > gold (crude oil) > US stocks > crypto
#September CPI arrives: How will crude oil and US Treasury bonds perform?