#阿斯麦与台积电即将发布Q3财报 I am more bullish on TSMC's earnings this time. Demand for its AI chips and advanced packaging is already reflected in its revenue, while ASML is more about whether expectations can continue to be revised upward. TSMC's Q3 earnings have significantly greater certainty and upside potential than ASML's.

TSMC has already provided extremely strong signals of earnings certainty ahead of time, with third-quarter revenue surging directly to NT$1.49 trillion, up 51% year on year. Institutions generally forecast that net profit growth could reach 65% year on year, potentially marking the sixth consecutive quarter of record-high earnings. It holds long-term orders from core AI chip customers including NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple, with order visibility extending to 2030. The shortage of advanced process capacity is expected to continue through 2027, and there have even been reports that foundry prices may be raised by 3%-6% early next year. Advanced packaging CoWoS capacity is also running at full utilization. The strength of AI demand is directly reflected in current-period revenue and profits, leaving little suspense.

By contrast, ASML's performance more heavily reflects the delivery of existing orders from six months ago or even earlier. Although it has already raised its full-year revenue guidance three times to €43 billion-€45 billion, the market's real focus is on the growth rate of new EUV orders. The pace of expansion at downstream wafer fabs will directly determine the quality of its orders, and there is a long time lag between equipment orders and revenue recognition. It will be difficult for single-quarter earnings to deliver a burst of performance significantly above expectations; they will serve more as a signal confirming the industry's long-term strength.

Simply put, TSMC is the direct beneficiary of the explosive demand for AI chips and advanced packaging. Its strong Q3 growth is already an open secret, and it will likely raise its full-year revenue and capital expenditure guidance, providing the market with a tangible earnings catalyst. As an upstream equipment supplier, ASML's earnings leverage depends more on downstream customers' willingness to expand capacity in the distant future, making a major earnings surprise much more difficult. #WCTCS9