The biggest trap in CPI market moves: Why doesn’t BTC rise when the data is bullish?

Many traders believe that as long as US CPI comes in below expectations, BTC, US stocks, and gold will definitely rise; if CPI comes in above expectations, the market will definitely fall.
But real financial markets are often not that simple.
First, the market trades the gap between expectations and reality, not simply whether the data is good or bad. If investors have already bet on cooling inflation, even if CPI meets expectations, the bullish news may already be priced in. After the data is released, profit-taking may instead occur.
Second, it is important to distinguish between headline CPI and core CPI. Suppose headline CPI rises due to higher energy prices, while core CPI shows moderate year-over-year and month-over-month figures. The market may not simply interpret this as a complete loss of control over inflation. Conversely, if core inflation unexpectedly strengthens, even if the headline figure meets expectations, it could change the market’s view of Federal Reserve policy.
Third, observing how the market reacts is more important than simply predicting the figure.
If CPI comes in below expectations, but BTC’s rebound is weak and US stocks retreat after rising sharply, investors should be alert to insufficient buying pressure or the bullish news being priced in. If CPI comes in above expectations but assets do not fall significantly, it may also indicate that the negative news has already been absorbed. Of course, a single price reaction cannot directly prove that the market trend has changed.
Therefore, I believe that what is most worth watching tonight is not just CPI itself, but also the dollar, US Treasury yields, and the actual price action of BTC and US stocks after the data is released.
Predicting the data is only the first step; understanding how the market digests the data is the key.
Which outcome do you think is most likely tonight?
🔥 Bullish news priced in, spike followed by a retreat
🚀 Inflation cools, sustained rise
⚡ Data exceeds expectations, market experiences sharp volatility
Feel free to share your view, and we can review it together after the market plays out.#美国9月CPI即将公布
Will CPI come in above or below expectations?$NVDA