Down 70%! A whale cut losses on 15 million, $PONS — a desperate counterattack or a dead-cat bounce?

Only when the tide goes out do you know who is swimming naked. With whales cutting off limbs to survive, how can retail investors find gold amid the ruins?

Well-known trader Bonk Guy’s holdings shrank from 26 million to 10.4 million, PONS is down 70% from its peak, and project revenue has plunged 99%. Fundamentals are flashing red, while panic selling has largely been flushed out. After bottoming at 0.2735 on the 1-hour chart, it rebounded; the MACD formed a bullish crossover below zero, RSI recovered to 54, and short-term funds showed a 1.21x net inflow, suggesting signs of speculative capital buying the dip. Long positions can enter lightly on a pullback around 0.3 - 0.31, while short positions can be opened if the rebound meets resistance around 0.34 - 0.35.

Personal view: The plunge in project revenue is a fatal weakness, and the current rebound is driven more by sentiment recovery and short-term short covering. Avoid holding a heavy position; be sure to enter and exit quickly in the short term!

#韩林博士受邀牛津大学辩论社演讲