#闪迪重挫6%存储股收跌 Short-term sentiment-driven pressure in the storage sector is likely to persist, while the fundamentals of a tight supply-demand balance remain intact in the medium term

I. Core drivers of this round of consecutive pullbacks
1. Multiple short-term negative factors hit simultaneously
Industry leaders such as SanDisk and Micron fell on 6 of 7 consecutive trading days. The trigger was a catch-up decline in the South Korean market after a holiday, the early termination of a $40 billion buyback plan by a major company, and heightened long-term supply concerns following ChangXin's breakthrough in the 4F² architecture.
2. Concentrated profit-taking by funds that bought at previous highs
The sector had risen too much previously. SanDisk continued to decline from its 52-week high of $2,354, while expectations for AI storage demand temporarily cooled, prompting funds to sell heavily at high levels and lock in gains.
3. The market is pricing in a future reversal in supply and demand ahead of time
Investors have already turned their attention to 2027-2028, worrying that the expansion of China's storage capacity and the simultaneous commissioning of new wafer fabs in South Korea could break the current undersupply situation.

II. Phased assessment of subsequent trends
1. Short term, 1-2 weeks: Sentiment-driven selling may retain its momentum
The KOSPI Index is already close to support at its 200-day moving average, while foreign investors have recorded net selling for 5 consecutive days. In the short term, the sector will likely continue to fluctuate while seeking a bottom, with the possibility of a further decline not ruled out.
2. Medium term, 3-6 months: Fundamentals remain supportive
TrendForce expects the DRAM supply shortage to persist until at least 2027. HBM supply will remain tight due to strong AI server demand, and the sustainability of storage price increases is stronger than in traditional cycles.
3. Long term, 1-2 years: Divergence will intensify
Manufacturers with core memory chip R&D capabilities and exposure to high-value-added AI segments will establish independent uptrends amid industry restructuring, while the earnings sensitivity of pure module players will narrow with the cycle.

III. Key indicators to watch going forward
1. Spot price trends
Focus on monthly changes in DRAM and NAND spot prices. If the price increase trend continues, the current pessimistic valuation sentiment will be quickly repaired.
2. Capital expenditure plans of major manufacturers
Watch the subsequent capacity expansion pace of Samsung and SK hynix. If original manufacturers actively control production, the timing of the long-term supply-demand reversal will be delayed.
3. Progress in domestic substitution
The actual year-end deliveries of ChangXin's 4F² architecture DDR5 products will directly determine the direction in which the market revises its expectations for the supply landscape.$SNDK