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#BTC涨1.17%

This morning, $BTC a single wick pierced 81,000, and Bitcoin nearly started with a 7 again. Total market liquidations over the past 24 hours came to nearly $500 million, with longs accounting for over 83%; who knows whether Machi Big Brother got precisely blown up again. It immediately made a V-shaped rebound after the dump and is now nearing 83,000 again. On the candlestick chart, MA7 has already turned upward and crossed above MA25, which does suggest a short-term bottom may be forming, but the shadow left by this wick will not disappear so quickly.

The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.70%, its highest level since 2002, while the 10-year yield also touched 5.35%, a 24-year high. With Treasuries offering a risk-free return of over 5% simply by holding them, who would still want to put money into highly volatile assets? On top of that, oil prices have climbed above $110, inflation expectations are rising again, and Cleveland Fed President Hammack turned hawkish this morning, saying rates must continue to rise to bring inflation back down to 2%. As money becomes more expensive, risk-asset valuations have to be reassessed. BTC and the Nasdaq are now moving in lockstep, so do not expect it to remain unaffected.

The altcoin market is where the real bloodbath is happening. BOME is down 30%, BLUR 29%, STRK 28%, and CKB 22%. BTC falls 3% while altcoins fall 30%. Altcoins have higher leverage and thinner liquidity; when BTC merely sneezes, they go straight into the ICU. Funding rates have turned negative, showing that longs are still being liquidated. Even if there is a short-term rebound, altcoins will most likely lag in their participation.

This is not the time to buy the dip, but it is not the time to panic-sell either. Those with heavy positions should use this V-shaped rebound to reduce leverage somewhat instead of holding high leverage and waiting for the next wick. Those looking to buy spot can consider scaling in if BTC pulls back to around 81,500; stay away from altcoins for now—especially those down more than 30%, as that suggests leverage has not yet been fully flushed out. Catching a falling knife will most likely leave you with a bloody hand.

On the macro front, keep an eye on CPI and expectations for a Fed rate hike in December. The probability of a December hike has currently exceeded 80%, and until this uncertainty is resolved, the height of any rebound remains questionable. Staying alive is more important than making money. Wait for the wind to come.