#WCTCS9 #BTC Bitcoin falls again—is the short-term rally over?

Looking at Bitcoin’s performance over the past few years, the market still appears to offer plenty of opportunities. Some analysts even believe Bitcoin could break through its all-time high again in 2027 and reach a new cycle peak in 2028.

But looking at the present, the market is clearly not so optimistic. Bitcoin has experienced a significant pullback, while bearish bets in the options market are concentrated around $80k.

Judging from historical cycles, Bitcoin could indeed continue to rebound. Well-known overseas analyst Root compared the market cycles of 2015, 2018, and 2022 and found that after bottoming, Bitcoin regained its all-time high within roughly a year.

Following this pattern, if the current market follows a similar recovery trajectory, Bitcoin could set a new all-time high before mid-2027.

The relatively small decline in this market cycle is also why analysts remain optimistic. Based on the low near $60k, Bitcoin’s maximum decline was about 52%, below the roughly 77% to 85% declines seen in the previous three bear-market cycles.

If this adjustment has already released some of the market risk, Bitcoin may also need a smaller rebound than in previous cycles.

However, forecasts can only serve as a reference. Historical trends can help us understand the market, but they cannot guarantee that future market movements will repeat the past.

Especially after spot ETFs and institutional funds gradually changed Bitcoin’s market structure, whether the previous four-year cycle can continue remains controversial.

Recent options data shows that the market remains cautious about the short-term outlook.

Among the Bitcoin options expiring this Friday on Deribit, approximately $451 million in notional value of put options is concentrated in the $76k-$80k strike-price range, while open interest in puts is also higher than that in calls.

This indicates that investors are still guarding against the risk of Bitcoin falling further, but market pricing for sharp short-term volatility has declined.

The $76k-$80k range remains a price zone worth watching. If selling pressure increases again, these levels could be tested once more.

In addition, the macro environment cannot be ignored. According to an analysis published by MarketWatch yesterday, the market expects U.S. headline CPI growth in September to rise year over year from 3.4% in August to about 3.7%.

If inflation comes in above expectations, the Federal Reserve may reconsider raising interest rates, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

This is why, even though Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory still has room to run, its short-term performance may not be smooth. Interest-rate expectations, the dollar’s trajectory, and market liquidity could all affect investors’ risk appetite.

Conversely, there is no need to become excessively pessimistic simply because the market has pulled back. A price decline by itself does not mean the long-term trend has ended. After leveraged positions are liquidated and market sentiment cools, valuations may return to reasonable levels.

The key is not to use long-term logic as the basis for short-term trading. Even if BTC really breaks through its all-time high in 2027, that does not mean it cannot continue falling in the short term.

The crypto market today is neither as good nor as bad as imagined.

Likewise, looking at market cycles, opportunities usually emerge from declines rather than rises, while more risk accumulates on the way up.