In the current market environment, I believe BTC's pressure has not yet been relieved.

Let's objectively assess three macro indicators first.

First, oil prices.

Oil prices have approached around $110, and this level warrants caution.

The rise in oil prices is not merely an issue of energy costs. More importantly, it could reignite market concerns about inflation. If energy prices continue to rise, the Federal Reserve could become more constrained in its monetary policy, while market expectations for interest-rate cuts could also be suppressed.

Although rising oil prices do not necessarily mean inflation will spiral out of control, they do increase the uncertainty surrounding the decline in inflation.

Second, U.S. Treasury yields.

U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, and the market is reassessing interest rates, inflation, and the returns on holding dollar-denominated assets.

If yields continue to hit new highs, BTC's valuation will generally face greater pressure. For BTC, this means capital may adopt a more cautious wait-and-see approach,

Third, the U.S. Dollar Index.

The continued strengthening of the dollar reflects the relative attractiveness of dollar assets and increased market demand for the dollar.

When the dollar strengthens while U.S. Treasury yields rise at the same time, it will place additional pressure on BTC.

If the market is only under temporary pressure, prices will typically see a strong wick rebound and recovery after falling.

But if the macro environment continues to deteriorate and BTC's rebounds lack sufficient buying support, every rebound could face selling pressure.

The current BTC market structure at least shows that market support is still not strong enough, and buyers have not yet demonstrated sufficiently clear initiative.

However, one or two weak rebounds alone are not enough to confirm the subsequent trend. Next, two aspects need to be watched:

If macro pressure continues to intensify and BTC's rebounds remain weak, the risk of continued market pressure will increase.

Conversely, if the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields begin to decline while BTC manages to regain and hold key levels, it would indicate that the market may be gradually digesting the pressure seen earlier.

Finally, my view is this: In this environment, everyone should not rush to determine where the bottom is, nor assume that the market has stabilized after just one rebound. First observe whether capital is genuinely flowing back in, then decide whether the subsequent trend is worth testing the waters with a purchase.#每周来晒