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AI forecasts Bitcoin security faces 76% risk by 2046
On-chain analyst Willy Woo sparked fresh debate over Bitcoin’s long-term security on Sunday, October 11, 2026, sharing AI-generated estimates that put a 1.3% chance of Bitcoin’s digital signatures being broken within two years. Inspired by Woo’s X post, News expanded the experiment, drawing on roughly four AI models and analyzing potential cryptographic threats across four different timeframes.
Woo’s post referenced estimates attributed to Opus 5.5, which placed a 0.5% probability of quantum computing breaking Bitcoin’s signatures within two years and a 0.8% probability of classical mathematics or AI achieving the same. While these figures may seem relatively modest, the potential consequences of...
⚠️ Personal market analysis only. NFA — manage risk and DYOR.
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