# Samsung Q3 Operating Profit Soars 782.5% #每周来晒

Why can't Samsung's strong earnings support its stock price?

Samsung Electronics' preliminary Q3 earnings guidance released before the market opened handed global tech stocks the "strongest report card in history": quarterly operating profit surpassed the 100 trillion won mark for the first time, reaching 107.4 trillion won (approximately $80.1 billion), a year-on-year surge of 782.5%; sales were approximately 195 trillion won, up 126.6% year on year, setting a new record for the fourth consecutive quarter.

However, this report card not only failed to ignite the stock price but instead triggered two simultaneous market plunges: South Korea's KOSPI index closed down 2.62% that day at 6625.93 points; Samsung Electronics' share price also closed down more than 2%. Is this a distortion of human nature or a collapse of morality? 😀Hear what Little God of Wealth has to say:

I. Why can't "records" translate into gains?

1. Expectations had already been priced in, and "slightly missing" hurts more than "slightly exceeding." The market had long since priced the benefits of the AI memory cycle into the stock price. Samsung's Q3 operating profit of 107.4 trillion won only slightly exceeded the market consensus of approximately 105.2 trillion–106.1 trillion won by about 1%, while sales of 195 trillion won came in below some institutions' estimate of 201.9 trillion won. As an eToro analyst put it: "Samsung delivered record profits, yet still failed to meet expectations—this shows how demanding the market is toward memory stocks. When expectations are this high, the market does not give extra credit for effort."

2. "Sell the news and take profits" dominated the market. Realizing gains once an event materializes is a common trading psychology in the stock market. On that day, foreign investors sold approximately 1.99 trillion won worth of Korean stocks net, institutions sold 1.67 trillion won net, while retail investors bought 2.91 trillion won net—foreign investors and institutions took profits in the face of record-breaking positive news, becoming the direct drivers of the decline. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 5.3% intraday, and international oil prices climbed back above $100, with adverse macro liquidity conditions further suppressing risk appetite.

3. The won's appreciation is "eating into" profits denominated in U.S. dollars. This is a key variable overlooked by most short-term investors: Samsung sells chips in U.S. dollars but records its accounts in won. The won appreciated sharply against the U.S. dollar by approximately 14.3% in Q3 (USD/KRW fell from approximately 1562 in early June to approximately 1338 in September), prompting Goldman Sachs to cut its earnings forecast for Samsung that quarter by approximately 5%. The stronger the won, the more Samsung's book profits shrink when converted, creating an invisible ceiling between "record earnings" and "record stock prices."

4. Concerns that the cycle is peaking are beginning to spread. The momentum behind rising memory prices is slowing at the margin: institutions expect conventional DRAM contract prices to rise another 10%–15% quarter on quarter in Q4, but this is already significantly narrower than the approximately 60% surge in Q2; Samsung's memory operating margin was approximately 76%, basically unchanged from the previous quarter and no longer improving. Investors are shifting their focus from "how high profits are" to "how long AI spending can continue and when the next recession will arrive."

II. Outlook: Still bullish over the long term, with close attention to this support level

1. From a fundamental perspective, broker target prices are currently generally between 270k and 650k won (average approximately 440k–494k won). Even the lowest target is slightly above the current price, indicating that the sell-side consensus remains that "the earnings are real; the only issue is the length of the cycle." The direction will truly be determined by four variables: the segment breakdown of memory / foundry / mobile in the full earnings report on October 29, the won exchange-rate trend, the quarter-on-quarter increase in DRAM prices, and the sustainability of global AI capital expenditures.

2. In the short term, the won's appreciation, U.S. Treasury yields, and oil prices form a triple drag, and the stock price may repeatedly consolidate within the 257k–270k won range. As long as it does not break below the following support and resistance levels, sell at highs and buy at lows:

Support levels

S1 ≈ 257k won: Trading concentration zone / volume support, a short-term probing level.

S2 250k–258k won: Overlapping zone of the previous consolidation platform and the 60-day moving average, a key mid-term defense line.

S3 237k–240k won: Lower boundary of the three-month forecast range, strong support.

Resistance levels

R1 264k–270k won: Short-term moving-average resistance and intraday high, the first resistance level for a short-term rebound.

R2 275k–276k won: Near the early-October rebound high, in the 20-day moving-average zone.

R3 285.5k won: September 23 pivot high, a key mid-term resistance. $Samsung Electronics

R4 310k–325k won: 52-week high zone, strong resistance.