#SamsungQ3OperatingProfitSurges782.5% $SKHY $SAMSUNG

GM ☕ A record quarter, profit up almost eight times, and the share price reacts by going down. That's exactly the kind of headline-versus-chart gap I like to dig into. Today I'm putting my two memory charts next to each other, SAMSUNG and SKHY, to see if they tell the same story.

The headline, in my own words

Operating profit of 107.4 trillion won, the first time ever above 100 trillion, and the fourth record quarter in a row, driven by AI demand for HBM and DRAM. That's about as strong as an earnings report gets. And yet KOSPI dropped over 1% and Samsung shares weakened right after. That tells me one thing: the good news was already in the price. When a record result can't lift the stock, the market was waiting for it, and "sell the news" is a very normal reaction after a big run.

I'm bullish on the memory cycle itself. But "the cycle is strong" and "the stock goes up tomorrow" are two different statements, and my job is to trade the second one with the chart.

What's the same on both charts

Both are sitting right on their purple support lines. SKHY is at 178.04 against support at 176.98, and SAMSUNG is at 263,500 against support at 263,224. Both are within about 1% of the line
Both are under their moving averages. The 14, 21 and 35 are bunched together above price on both charts, so the short-term trend is pointing down
Both have RSI near 40 (39 and 41) and negative MACD, so momentum has cooled on both
Both recently failed at a high and pulled back after

Same message from both: the memory trade took a breath right after the best earnings report of the cycle.

What's different (this is where it gets interesting)

SKHY has a stronger trend behind it. From its late-July low around 124, it climbed to the high 190s, so it's still up roughly 44% from that low even after this drop. It dropped sharply in the last few days, and the way it fell, from around 195 down to 178 in a few candles, tells me sellers hit hard. It also has a lot of room: resistance is at 197.75, about 11% above price.

SAMSUNG is a range, not a trend. It fell from a high around 375,000 in June down to roughly 190,000 in early August, then bounced and has been moving sideways between about 245,000 and 276,000 since. So it's up about 39% from the bottom, but it's been stuck for weeks. Resistance at 275,925 is only about 4.7% above price, so there's less room before it hits the ceiling again.

Quick scorecard:

Distance to support: SKHY about 0.6%, SAMSUNG about 0.1%
Distance to resistance: SKHY about 11%, SAMSUNG about 4.7%
Trend: SKHY recovering uptrend with a sharp pullback, SAMSUNG a long sideways range
Reward potential if the bounce works: SKHY bigger, SAMSUNG smaller but steadier

Which one would I rather trade?

If I only had one slot, I'd lean SKHY for the bounce, because the reward is larger and the stop is just as tight. SAMSUNG is the more patient trade: it's right on support, but the upside is capped by that 275,925 ceiling, so I take quicker profits there.

Is it priced in? (the admin's question, applied here)

The rate path matters for this trade too. The Fed is in a hiking cycle and CPI on Oct 14 can change the October odds. Higher rate expectations tend to hit expensive, growth-heavy parts of the market first, and AI-linked names are exactly that. So if CPI is hot, I'd expect memory names to feel it more than most, even with perfect earnings behind them. If CPI is fine, the strong fundamentals have a chance to reassert themselves. This is why I'm keeping my size smaller than my chart would normally allow before the 14th.

My plans (my own view, not advice)

SKHY:

Bounce long: 176.98 to 178
Stop loss: 4H close below 174
TP1: 185.8 (the 35 MA), roughly 2.4R
TP2: 187.5 (the 14 MA)
TP3: 195, roughly 5R
If 174 breaks: the bounce idea is dead. I step aside, or short a weak retest of 176.98, targeting 168 and then 160 (stop above 179)

SAMSUNG:

Bounce long: 263,224 to 264,000
Stop loss: 4H close below 260,000
TP1: 269,500, roughly 1.6R
TP2: 270,700
TP3: 275,925, roughly 3.4R
If 260,000 breaks: I step aside, or short a failed retest of 263,224, targeting 255,000 and then 250,000 (stop above 266,000)

Flip to bullish: a 4H close back above the moving average cluster (about 187.5 for SKHY, about 270,700 for SAMSUNG) would tell me the pullback is over.

Both plans use small size and low leverage, and I always check how a product tracks its underlying market hours before sizing, because gaps can jump over a stop.

Check-in
Calm, light positions, and no urge to chase. Record earnings with a falling price is a lesson, not a reason to panic.

The one-line version: great news, tired chart, and both tokens are sitting right on their support lines. Whoever holds that line first usually leads the bounce.

Which one are you trading, SKHY for the bigger move or SAMSUNG for the steadier one?