#FedSeptemberMinutesLeanHawkish

‍#ShareWeekly #每周来晒 #美联储9月纪要偏鹰 $BTC
GM ☕ Six days to CPI. Instead of one big take, I'm laying out the next three weeks as a countdown, because the Fed story has a calendar, and so does my plan.

Where the Fed stands today

The Fed hiked by 25bp in September to 3.75%-4.00%, and nobody voted against it. The minutes confirmed the rest: most officials think one more hike by year-end would likely be appropriate, but they want data first and saw no rush for October. Traders agree with that, October odds are under 20%, while a hike by year-end is priced as very likely. So the Fed has basically said "direction yes, timing later". Everything below is about that timing.

Phase 1: Today to Oct 14 (the waiting room)

This is the phase I'm in right now, and my chart is honest about it. BTC pushed into 86.7K to 87.4K last week, got rejected, and now sits around 82,960. That's about 5% under the recent high, and it just slipped below the area where it spent days chopping. I won't pretend I know the one reason. What I do know is that the market isn't waiting calmly, it's leaning lower.

My drawn path for this phase: a small relief bounce first, a rejection somewhere around 83.8K to 84K, then another leg down toward the 82.4K area. If that plays out, it's a normal pre-data shakeout, not a trend change. Waiting rooms are where patient people lose the least.

Phase 2: Oct 14 (CPI day)

This is the main event, and also the answer to the admin's first question. If inflation surprises to the upside, October hike odds can jump from under 20% back toward the 70% region they sat at right after the September decision. If it comes in cooler, December starts to look less sure. If it's in line, nothing changes, and technical levels run the show again.

My CPI-day rules:

Reduce size before the release, no full leverage into the print
Don't trade the first minutes, the first spike often reverses
Wait for a closed 1H candle before acting on direction
Stops go in before entry, never after

Phase 3: Oct 15 to Oct 28 (the decision window)

PPI comes the day after CPI, and the Fed decides on Oct 28. Here's the second admin question, how policy expectations hit crypto and stocks. My simple version: higher rate expectations push yields and the dollar up, and risk assets, especially crypto and expensive tech, feel it first. Lower expectations do the opposite. Stocks have looked calmer than crypto this week, which tells me they might be underpricing the risk, or crypto is overpricing it. One of them is wrong, and CPI will probably say which.

Is it all priced in? (admin's third question)

My answer: the path is priced in, the surprise is not. A December hike is already in the numbers, so more hawkish words won't shock anyone. What isn't priced is a hot CPI forcing an October move. That's the real tail risk, and it's why I keep my size smaller this week than my chart would normally allow.

My plan on the fresh chart (my own view, not advice)

Price is about 82,960. Overhead I see layers at 83,285 to 83,370, then 83,656 to 83,926, and the 84,048 area where the trend line and moving average sit. Below, the supports run 82,923 to 82,827, the key level near 82,732, then 82,655 to 82,630, and the bottom of the golden zone around 82,462 to 82,407. Far below sits the key level near 80,097.

Plan A, short the relief bounce: rejection at 83,800 to 84,050, stop above 84,400, TP1 83,000, TP2 82,450
Plan B, long from the golden zone: 82,650 to 82,450, stop on a 4H close under 82,200, TP1 83,300, TP2 84,000
Plan C, only if it flushes: 80,300 to 80,100, stop below 79,700, TP1 82,000, TP2 82,700. I wait for a reaction there, I don't catch it blindly
Flip to bullish: a 4H close above 84,050 that holds on retest would turn the short-term view back up, with 85,231 and 85,826 as targets

If none of these trigger, I do nothing, and that's a position too.

Check-in: calm, light, spot untouched, cash set aside on purpose. I'm not in a hurry to be right, I'm in a hurry to still be here after CPI.

My answer to the poll: pause in October, hike in December. Which phase of the countdown are you most worried about?