October 8 $BTC Current view

The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with the US and Iran fundamentally divided over the nuclear issue and the order of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliamentary speaker explicitly reiterated that “the Strait of Hormuz will never reopen before the seven conditions are implemented,” while Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US proposal was similar to previous ones and that no substantive negotiations had been held on the nuclear program. Since October 1, the US has deployed a third carrier strike group and amphibious forces, while Yemen’s Houthi militants have attacked Saudi Aramco targets, with the risk of geopolitical spillover continuing to rise. The September FOMC meeting minutes released on October 8 showed that all participants unanimously supported a 25-basis-point rate hike, while most participants believed that further rate hikes during the year could be appropriate. Several participants pointed out that geopolitical tensions were pushing up crude oil prices, and that rapidly growing AI-related investment was also increasing inflationary pressure. Some officials also believed that the current policy rate was “not restrictive” or “only mildly restrictive,” meaning there is still room for rate hikes. Yifan’s personal advice: Every rebound is an opportunity to short—short boldly. This is why Yifan has recently been asking you to short; pick up the profits with your eyes closed. As long as the overall direction is right, that’s enough.