#SOL现货ETF单日净流出924万美元

#SOL现货ETF单日净流出924万美元
SOL is trading around $118.2 today, after opening near $120.65 and falling to approximately $117.17 before recovering slightly. The daily structure is becoming more important because SOL is now sitting close to the same support zone that has repeatedly attracted buyers.

But this time, the chart is not the only thing moving.

SOL is dealing with three different forces at once: cooling ETF demand, a still-active Solana ecosystem, and a Federal Reserve backdrop that could determine how much risk appetite remains across crypto.

That combination makes today's price action much more interesting than a simple $120 rejection.

ETF demand is cooling — but this is not capitulation

The latest U.S. spot SOL ETF numbers show two consecutive negative sessions.

On October 5, spot SOL ETFs recorded approximately $9.25M in net outflows, including around $7.1M from BSOL and $2.1M from FSOL.

Then on October 6, another approximately $3.68M flowed out, bringing the two-day total to roughly $12.93M.

That is a clear deterioration from the stronger inflow period earlier in September.

But I would be careful with the conclusion.

Cumulative net inflows since launch remain around $1.59B, and the tracked funds held roughly 16M SOL, worth about $1.93B, as of October 6.

So I don't see evidence here that institutional SOL exposure has suddenly disappeared.

What we are seeing is a change in the pace of demand.

That distinction matters.

The market had become accustomed to strong ETF inflows supporting the SOL narrative. Now that flow has weakened, price has to prove that there is enough demand elsewhere to absorb sellers.

And this is where the Solana network matters

The ETF story is only one side of SOL.

On-chain activity and ecosystem usage are another.

Solana recently processed substantial DEX activity, while the broader ecosystem continues to expand into payments, tokenized assets and institutional infrastructure.

The latest development is particularly interesting.

On October 6, the Solana Foundation launched Solana DvP, an open-source delivery-versus-payment settlement program designed for financial institutions. The system is built around atomic settlement, isolated escrow and settlement deadlines, with J.P. Morgan providing input on institutional settlement requirements.

I would not turn that announcement into an immediate bullish price target.

A technology announcement does not automatically create token demand.

But it does matter for the longer-term thesis because Solana is increasingly trying to position itself as infrastructure for financial settlement and tokenized assets rather than being valued only through speculative trading activity.

That gives SOL another fundamental narrative while ETF flows are slowing.

Now the FOMC minutes enter the picture

This is probably the most important macro event for today's crypto session.

The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the minutes from its September 15–16 meeting today, October 7. The next actual FOMC rate decision is not today; the next meeting is scheduled for October 27–28.

The September meeting matters because the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, and investors are now trying to understand how policymakers view the path ahead.

Today's minutes could therefore move the dollar, Treasury yields and broader risk appetite — and crypto tends to react quickly when those conditions change.

The latest market backdrop is mixed.

Reuters reports that expectations for an October hike have fallen sharply, with the probability of at least a 25-basis-point October increase around 20.5%, down from roughly 51% a week earlier. At the same time, markets are still pricing significant odds of another hike in December.

That creates a tricky environment for SOL.

If the minutes sound less hawkish than expected, yields and the dollar could come under pressure, potentially giving risk assets some breathing room.

If the minutes reinforce the idea that the Fed remains concerned about inflation and wants to keep policy restrictive, the dollar and yields could strengthen again.

For crypto, that difference can matter more than the ETF number itself over a short timeframe.

So what does $118 mean?

This is where I am paying the most attention.

SOL is currently around $118.2, and today's low has already tested roughly $117.17. That puts the market very close to the first major defense area.

For me, $117–$118 is the immediate battlefield.

If buyers defend this area and SOL gets back above $120, the current decline can still be interpreted as a pullback inside the broader structure.

The next confirmation would be $122.

A sustained move above $122 would tell me that buyers are absorbing the recent ETF-related pressure rather than simply waiting for lower prices.

Above that, $124–$125 remains the major resistance zone.

That area has already rejected price multiple times, so I would want to see a genuine breakout with follow-through rather than a quick wick above resistance.

If SOL clears and holds $125, the chart opens the door toward the $128–$132 area.

That would be the bullish path.

But the bearish scenario is equally important.

If SOL loses $117 decisively and cannot reclaim it, I would expect the market to start testing $114–$115.

A break through that area would weaken the short-term structure considerably and bring approximately $112 into focus.

So my current map is:

$117–$118 → immediate defense

$120 → recovery level

$122 → bullish confirmation

$124–$125 → major resistance / breakout test

$128–$132 → upside zone if breakout confirms

$114–$115 → first downside area if $117 fails

$112 → deeper support

The real SOL trade is becoming a macro + flow trade

This is why I don't want to label SOL simply bullish or bearish today.

The market is transitioning.

ETF demand, which was previously one of the strongest arguments behind the SOL move, has weakened over the last few sessions.

At the same time, cumulative ETF flows remain strongly positive.

The Solana ecosystem continues developing institutional infrastructure.

And now the market has to digest fresh information from the Federal Reserve.

That creates a very different setup.

A dovish interpretation of the FOMC minutes combined with SOL defending $117–$118 could create the conditions for a recovery back toward $122 and potentially $124–$125.

A hawkish interpretation combined with continued ETF outflows and a clean loss of $117 would be much more concerning.

In that scenario, I would rather respect the downside levels than try to force a bullish narrative.

What I am watching today

I am watching three things together.

First: Does SOL hold $117–$118?

Second: Do ETF outflows continue, or does the flow picture stabilize?

Third: How does the market interpret today's FOMC minutes through the dollar and Treasury yields?

If those three signals start pointing in the same direction, SOL's next move could become much clearer.

For now, the important thing is that $120 is no longer the only level that matters.

The market has already pulled back toward $118.

Now buyers need to prove that this is accumulation around support rather than the beginning of another leg lower.

The ETF narrative has cooled.

The Fed is back in focus.

Solana's institutional infrastructure story is expanding.

And the chart has reached the level where buyers need to respond.

$117–$118 is the line I am watching most closely today.

If it holds, the road back to $120 → $122 → $124–$125 remains open.

If it breaks, I will be watching $115 → $112 instead.

For me, that is the real SOL setup right now: not a prediction, but a reaction to the levels and the information the market gives us next.

$SOL {currencycard:futures}(SOL_USDT) ‌