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#XAG Silver is trading around $60.7 today, after opening near $61.34 and reaching an intraday high around $61.50 before sellers pushed price back toward $60.6. On the surface, this looks like another red session. But the more important question is whether this is simply a pullback after the recent recovery or the beginning of another leg lower.

The recent price action gives us some useful context. Silver closed around $60.42 on October 2 after touching $59.69, then recovered to $61.10 on October 5 and $61.34 on October 6. That means buyers managed to recover from the sub-$60 area, but the market has now reached the $61.5–$62 region and is struggling to hold the gains.

That is why I am treating $60.5–$60.7 as an important short-term area rather than assuming today's weakness automatically means the trend has turned bearish.

There is also a clear macro reason for today's pressure. The U.S. dollar has strengthened as traders wait for the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes. Reuters reported that the dollar index was around 102.07, while expectations for an October rate hike have fallen sharply. At the same time, markets still see meaningful odds of further tightening later in the year.

For silver, that combination matters. XAG/USD is priced in dollars, so a stronger dollar can make silver more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Higher Treasury yields can also reduce the appeal of holding a non-yielding metal. That is why the direction of the dollar and yields can become just as important as the silver chart itself during a macro-heavy session.

Today's FOMC minutes are therefore the major event risk. The minutes are not a fresh interest-rate decision; they provide more detail about the discussion and views from the September policy meeting. Traders will be looking for clues about inflation, employment and how comfortable policymakers are with the possibility of additional rate increases. The market will likely focus less on the headline and more on whether the tone looks more hawkish or more divided.

If the minutes come across as less hawkish than expected, the dollar and yields could ease, giving silver room to recover. In that scenario, I would want to see XAG reclaim $61 first. A move back above $61.5–$61.8 would be more convincing because that would put price back above today's rejection area.

The next important resistance is around $62. Silver has already struggled around this region several times, so I would not consider a brief wick above $62 enough. What matters is whether buyers can hold above it and build acceptance. If that happens, the next upside area I would watch is approximately $62.5–$63, with the broader structure improving further if price can reclaim that zone.

But the bearish scenario is equally clear.

If silver cannot defend the $60.5–$60.7 region and breaks below $60, the recent recovery starts looking much less convincing. The next area I would monitor is around $59.7–$60.0, especially because silver already reached approximately $59.69 on October 2. A decisive break below that area would tell me that sellers are regaining control rather than simply taking profit after the recent bounce.

There is another technical reference worth watching. Current technical estimates put the first support around $60.37, with a pivot near $61.20 and resistance around $61.76. Those levels line up reasonably well with the broader price structure, which makes the $60.3–$60.7 region particularly important for today's session.

What I like about the current setup is that the market is giving us clearly defined confirmation points instead of forcing us to predict the next candle.

If $60.5–$60.7 holds, I want to see $61 reclaimed.

If $61.5–$61.8 breaks and holds, the bullish structure improves and $62 becomes the next major test.

If $62 breaks with real follow-through, $62.5–$63 becomes the next area I would watch.

But if $60 breaks decisively, I would stop treating the move as a normal pullback and start watching $59.7–$60 and potentially lower levels.

The bigger picture is also worth remembering. Silver is not driven by monetary policy alone. It has both a precious-metals role and an industrial-demand component, which means its price can react to changes in real yields, the dollar, economic expectations and industrial demand at the same time. That makes silver extremely sensitive when macro conditions shift quickly.

And right now, the market is dealing with exactly that kind of environment. The dollar is firm, Treasury yields remain an important source of pressure, oil prices are elevated and investors are waiting for the Fed minutes for another signal on monetary policy. Reuters also reports that precious metals broadly moved lower today as traders waited for the Fed's guidance.

So I am not looking at today's XAG move as simply “silver is bearish.”

I see it as a test of whether the recent recovery can survive a stronger dollar and fresh Fed uncertainty.

The key level for me is still $60.5–$60.7.

Hold that area, and silver has a chance to rebuild toward $61 → $61.5–$61.8 → $62.

Lose $60, and the market could revisit $59.7–$60 before buyers get another serious opportunity.

The FOMC minutes could provide the catalyst, but I would rather trade the reaction than predict the headline.

Silver is sitting at the point where the next move needs confirmation.

$60.7 is the immediate battlefield.

$62 is the breakout test.

$60 is the line I do not want to see lost.

That is the XAG/USD setup I am watching today.

$XAG